And I still think it was market manipulation that made him a heavy favorite for the last 2 weeks. I think large amounts of money were placed on Trump for the sole purpose of making it appear he’s going to win.
Dang, this one is tough to predict. Oddly, Trump is still a slight favorite on metaculus, which trades on reputation rather than money. Who will be elected US President in 2024?
This is possible, cypress, but before accepting the manipulation hypothesis, I’d like to see two criteria satisfied: I’d like to see some evidence beyond that a bettor put a lot of money on Trump, as that exact outcome would also occur if someone honestly believed Trump were going to win. Indeed, about someone posted a tweet quoting the polymarket “whale” saying he didn’t think pollsters have done much to correct for their undercounting of Trump voters in the last two elections. Of course he could be lying, but anyone could be lying. I’d also like to see an explanation of why other bettors didn’t put money on Harris if the odds were so overtly erroneous. Obviously polymarket didn’t bar anyone from betting on Harris or we would have heard about it. In fact, they invited bets on Harris by continually increasing the potential payout of her shares. Polymarket also asked the whale to stop making huge bets with new accounts. So it’s confusing why everyone would just leave so much money sitting on the table.
The huge bettor is either a total moron or he did it to intentionally make it seem like Trump was going to win. Either way I don’t think it’s predictive of anything. #2 is happening. It might take until this election night to get back even with the $30M bet. But that’s precisely why the odds are shifting. People are putting money on Harris.
Yep. They’re starting to see the same data that we’re seeing with regards to exit polling and everything trending her way and betting accordingly.
Idiot or manipulator are the only two options only if we preclude any chance that Trump could win the election. Of course we can’t do this, as the uncertainty of future outcomes is the whole point of a prediction market. So we must include a third option: there is a reason for believing that this bet will pay off. Here’s a story on the whale: The French 'whale' who made massive pro-Trump bets is only doing it for the money and could win $80 million, report says As for #2, what’s happening with the market doesn’t look to me like a response to the whale. Notice that all of the movement has happened within 24 hrs, but those odds have been sitting there for the taking for two weeks. Bettors usually look for any timing advantage they can get, sometimes trying to shave seconds off their time to bet. Waiting two weeks and then having everyone bet against the whale in a single day without any other outside information doesn’t seem right. Not to mention that all the other markets, including the academic ones PredictIt and Metaculus, shifted toward Trump during this time. If there is absolutely zero rational basis to believe that Trump wins, this could only be explained by a mass delusion, rather than the actions of a single manipulator.
Yes this is what I think is happening. Bettors are responding to new information, rather than finally getting around to responding to something that happened two weeks ago.
I’ve heard that pollsters have added that question to screen for the shy Trump voter effect. I’m just not convinced that it is as relevant in ‘24 as it was in ‘20 or ‘16.
I lost $15 on Gavin Newsome being the Democratic nominee in ‘24. I didn’t think Biden would make it to election day but was wrong on the replacement process.
I really think it’s simply a toss up. Bettors that were bullish on Harris saw that $30M bet get placed and they were rightfully spooked. Clearly this guy knows something they don’t in an otherwise nailbitingly close election, right? Meanwhile bettors that were bullish on Trump saw that bet get placed and jumped on the bandwagon. Now the odds are slowly drifting back to 50/50 because the frog doesn’t know shit and it really is just a toss up.
Dactile has Harris at 52%, 538 has Trump at 51%, I think Silver has Trump around 55% ... it's a complete toss up at this point if you think the polls are accurate.
I don’t think it’s a toss up at all and the polls are completely wrong. Reading between the lines, seeing exit poll data and the fact that it’s been reported that Harris’ team is very happy with their internal polling data while Trump is having meltdowns already about fraud makes me believe that Harris is winning and winning comfortably.
It showed where the polls were wrong in 2016 and 2020 in the rust belt area 3 at least. The polls underestimated Trump big time there and in NC also I think.
Seeing almost enough data now to think Harris only chance is to sweep the rust belt area 3. GA I haven't totally written off for her due to no party ID in that state but most info looks more favorable to Trump so far. If Harris won NC, AZ or NV I would really be surprised. The early data is bad for Dems in those states. Ralston is even very surprised by NV.
The betting markets can be explained by a case of follow the leader. Bettors are always looking for that next piece of intel to give them an inside edge. All betting markets were close to even until the Polymarket began to shift in favor of Trump significantly. Other bettors hypothesized someone had good info and that's why millions were being laid on Trump. Meanwhile, Polymarket goes over $.60 for Trump, and now everyone wants in. But the odds are still under .60 at other betting sites, so hop on the better odds there while they last, before these sites have similar odds as the leader, Polymarket. In reality, the whale that caused the Polymarket shift is likely just a big fan with deep pockets. He has no inside information. And now that actual information is shifting back towards Harris, bettors are putting money on her. Speaking of shifting towards Harris, if you look at party affiliation, sunbelt states look decent for Trump. But look at gender and age, which may be better predictors than party affiliation for this election, things look better for Harris. Polls show Harris with double digit leads among women and voters under 30.
No but I think it may be a 4% to 5% state this time instead of 10%. The only possible shocker imo is NH but it's highly unlikely it flips. If NH is within 3% I don't see how Trump doesn't win either WI or PA or both.
