Trump vs. Harris - Please put all new polls here.

People seem to think their neighbors are voting for Trump.

 

Gender, Ethnicity, and Race are all optional reporting to register to vote here in North Carolina. 6% chose not to report. You are welcome.

 

Trump was up 60-40 on polymarket for Wisconsin on 10/28. Now Kamala is leading. What changed?


Wisconsin Presidential Election Winner

 

Small sample size, but lol.

 

If this is accurate, all the talk about Michigan Muslims was for naught. Stein is taking almost equally from both candidates and made it a wash. Also explains why Michigan has trended light blue over the last week or two as the pattern became more clear.

 

Odds overall have also shifted from 68/32 Trump to now 60/40 overall. Now that it’s clear from all the data coming out that it’s looking more and more like a Harris victory, those odds will be basically back to even by Election Day.

 

Trump was favored on Election Day 2020 58-42.

 

LOL! Once again, not sure why anyone takes these betting markets seriously. Literally filled with nothing but right wing crypto bros.

 

Polls are flying in Today. This one leans left.

 

So Jon Ralston has been saying if R’s maintain their lead in early voting of around 4.5%, then Democrats are in trouble in NV. Today is the final day of early voting in NV and then we should have a good idea if the late, early vote came in for Democrats. That result may provide some clarity if the polls are off one way or the other going i to election day.

 

Turns out one of the guys who pumped the most money into Trump on polymarket has very simplistic reasoning and may not be a gambling genius.

 

Crazy how so many dumb people are the ones with money - life is stupid. All of the poll data coming in now is heavily favoring Harris, this dude better settle in for a tough Tuesday night.

 

So it sounds like the last 2 big nonpartisan polls left to drop are the NYT/Siena rust belt poll, and the last Selzer poll in Iowa (Selzer is the gold standard there). Both tomorrow.
But some secondary polls will continue to roll in. Like this one.

 

Primarily thanks to the ground game of the Culinary Union Democratic candidates have consistently outperformed the polls in Nevada. An example from two years ago.


I would add that the Republican candidate did defeat the incumbent governor in the same election almost entirely in response to the Covid lockdown supported by the incumbent which destroyed the economy triggering a major recession in a state dependent on tourism.

 

Arguably the least relevant metric ever recorded.

 

Polymarket odds have made a rapid swing toward Harris in the last day. Trump’s lead is now down to 58-42%. This is in response to recent polls, I’m guessing.

https://polymarket.com/elections

RCP reported yesterday that Polymarket actually had the lowest odds for Trump of any of the markets they track. So much for market manipulation.

 

she’s now favored on predictit.

PredictIt