We will see. I do give Dems credit in 2022 for their GOTV operation in the big races. Despite a +3 Rep national environment they still won most of the biggest races. I think the Reps are matching that this election though.
If Trump is truly leading in the swing states, why do his red state numbers look so bad? Only +5 in KS (+20 in 2020) and Iowa and Nebraska are on the verge of flipping blue.
You are one up on me cuz I have no idea. Feels like having no offices or ground game should cost Trump unless they have been ineffective for 100 years, or have become ineffective due to social media or something.
Trump outsourced it to Musk's Super PAC and the money has largely been wasted as the paid canvassers are just reporting fake contacts and getting their checks.
A couple good polls for Harris have come out recently so we should expect another Rasmussen soon to counteract
Pollster Rich Baris tells Mar I remember when Emerson and by extention Charles Krauthammer and Michael Medved and many others sa8d Bush got 44% 9f the Hispan9c vote in 2004. 3mers9n made a r3all6 dumb error. I debunked t.hem nationwide on talk radio. Busyh got ~ 37% of Hispanics
The GOP ground game in the swing states are PACs but they are putting a lot of work into it. The one state where the votes and propensity of voters is available shows Reps doing really well in getting low propensity voters out to vote early. I think the state was NC.
I did the math on that based on the 2020 total voters ... I only did Michigan, but it's slightly favorable to Harris... Projecting those percentages, based on 5,580,000 total votes, like there was in 2020, I got Harris by 30,000 votes. Of course, the less people who vote on election day, the better for Harris... but almost half have voted so far.
Did the same in Penn, where only about 1/3 of voters have requested early ballots, and got Harris by 300,000....
Don't need to do the math for Wisconsin, they are already near 50% on early voting, so that is favorable to Harris.
Did early voting today in Jacksonville and it was slammed. I think we're going to smash turn out records.
Some early voting data points to possible turnout issue for the Dems in the bigger cities in PA and WI. I want to see what the numbers are on election morning though.
Based on the polls of those who've already voted she's in good shape and this includes the high GOP rural turnout in various states
Is Polling Broken? November 1, 2024 at 3:03 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 152 Comments Nate Cohn: “It’s hard to overstate how traumatic the 2016 and 2020 elections were for many pollsters. For some, another underestimate of Mr. Trump could be a major threat to their business and their livelihood. For the rest, their status and reputations are on the line.” “If they underestimate Mr. Trump a third straight time, how can their polls be trusted again? It is much safer, whether in terms of literal self-interest or purely psychologically, to find a close race than to gamble on a clear Harris victory.” “At the same time, the 2016 and 2020 polling misfires shattered many pollsters’ confidence in their own methods and data. When their results come in very blue, they don’t believe it. And frankly, I share that same feeling: If our final Pennsylvania poll comes in at Harris +7, why would I believe it? As a result, pollsters are more willing to take steps to produce more Republican-leaning results.” They're trying to tell us what we all know without actually saying it.
It's almost like it's not even "polling" anymore ... it's some company collecting data, then adjusting that data to say whatever they want it to say ... Trafalgar basically admitted they add in what they call an "submerged republican" factor ... which seems pretty arbitrary.
Similar article about Nate Silver today... Nate Silver: ‘Cheating’ Pollsters Are Putting ‘Finger on the Scale’
