The first votes have been cast in the election

I think you have it backwards. More Repubs are voting early in PA this year because Trump said it's ok. That means relatively fewer Repubs are going to show up on election day.

 

That is not necessary true. It could also mean that Republicans have banked more votes early than they have in the past, which gives the Trump Campaign and their third party partners more time to chased down lower propensity voters and get them to the polls. If that happens and they are able to turn them out on election day, Republican could maintain their in person voting day advantage or only see it drop a bit. Not saying that is what is going to happen. What we are all trying to figure out is what does the delta between early voting between '20 and '24 in PA really mean?

 

Time will tell. Given Trump's instructions to vote early and given Trump supporters' tendency to follow his instructions, I'm guessing Republicans are relatively more likely to vote early this year. And I'd guess that Dem turnout on election day will be relatively higher.

 

Then don’t vote.

 

So what do you make of the lower Democratic turnout in PA in '24 versus '20?

 

I'm not sure that would be an effective strategy considering that the demographic of potential voters with the lowest propensity to vote most likely do not even bother to register and considering that the deadline for registration in Pennsylvania is October 21st it's already a too late to chase them down. Obviously speculation my guess is that almost every state Republicans are voting early this cycle in contrast to 2020 was that prior to the last election Donald Trump was actively discouraging his supporters from voting early. This time around they've been encouraged to do so.

 

The pandemic, for one. Two, D voters not wanting a repeat of 2020, where Trump had a large lead after election day that faded as the early ballots were counted.

 

Pandemic.

 

You have 2 opposing forces happening with early voting in PA. Trump discouraged early voting in 2020. And Democrats tended to take social distancing during the pandemic more seriously. Those 2 things would lead to higher Dem turnout early and higher Repub turnout on election day.

In 2024, Trump is encouraging early voting, making Repubs more likely to vote early, and the pandemic/social distancing is over, making Dems more likely to vote on election day. So I don't think you can put any stock into the early voting numbers in PA compared to 2020. Things are very different this year.

 

So the number I have seen is that Democratic early voting is down in PA by around 850k votes from '20 to '24. The '20 election in PA was decided by 80k votes. Let's assume Trump hits his same number in PA that he did '20, do you think it is a good strategy to bet on 90% of the 850k voters making it to the polls on election day?

 

I'm sorry but why are you bringing up people who are not registered to vote? I just do not get that. We are talking about registered but low propensity voters that are registered to vote. Or people that had not voted in the past but did register as R voters before Oct '21. Don't you think it is worth both party's time to go and track down the final 5% to 10% of your parties voters and make sure you get them to the polls on election day?

 

Not great strategy. But if people don't request an early ballot, what can you do? You can look at 2022 Senate race, which had lower early ballots than 2020, and Fetterman won by around 5 points.

 

They are following Trump’s orders too, lmfao.

 

FYI, I'm asking this because I see some Republican statisticians/number crunchers looking at the early vote and getting very confident. I do not share their views because like we talked about in the AZ early vote, no one really knows how Indies are breaking and what percentage of the party voters both candidates are holding on to. They are making some big assumptions that I do not think you can do and still be confident. I'm trying to see how other are looking at the data and the strategy behind it.

 

I do not think anyone really knows what is going on at this point.

 

I would agree. Using 2020 as a baseline is a mistake. Two major variables existed in 2020 that do not exist today. First and foremost is the pandemic. Second is Trump's insistence on not voting early. He's been much more receptive to early voting this cycle.

While we won't know until the actual votes are counted and released, everything suggests we'll see more D voters on election day in PA. And we're likely seeing more R early votes in the state.

Arizona is much harder to read. Early voting has been a thing here for over a decade. I've on the "PERL" or Permanent Early Voter List now since 2016. 2020 likely saw more "late earlies," which are early ballots delivered on election day than usual. And perhaps this cycle, we'll see more on-time early ballots and less late earlies? And possibly less people on election day than before?

 

We may not necessarily be getting the correct story. The numbers I have read is that Democratic early voting is down in PA by over 800k votes from '20 to '24. What could be happening is mass alien abductions. As many as 500k Dem voters being held in cryo suspension on the far side of the moon. Let also assume that the aliens are jamming any 911 calls to report missing persons. A quick check of 911 call center logs could confirm that. Then, Tuesday evening after the polls close, the aliens start reinserting the dem voters into PA. Not all at once, but systematically in an obscure but non-random pattern. With their memories erased by the cryo-freeze, is it really a good strategy to bet on a strong turnout of those abducted voters on election day?

 

My ballot was almost the exact opposite of yours.

Surprised?

 

BTW, more Republicans are not voting early in PA this year. They are some where between 30k to 80k votes below where they were in '20.

2024 - » 2024 General Election Early Vote – Pennsylvania UF Election Lab
2020 - Pennsylvania Early Voting Statistics & Pennsylvania Early Voting Turnout