Harris. I think election polling in 2024 has too many flaws to predict a reliable outcome. IMO, a correlation with a polling result and a candidate winning would just be coincidence since it's binary anyways. Might as well rely on a groundhog.
You might need to define win. Maga is planning challenges everywhere. Will they slow/stop the count & disrupt the process? And then his loyalist - election conspiracy types are in key election positions.
Harris. Sorry OK, I wrote this out then saw so I edited to put it in spoilers, you broke your own rule though! Spoiler I think: Harris wins NC (deep red western NC having low turnout due to the storm) Trump wins PA (Harris neglected the gold-plated Dem Philly turnout operation) Hillary lost because she completely ignored the key states of MI, WI, PA. Harris hasn't made this mistake. Also, Harris has way more money to spend in the final approach. The swing states will be saturated in her ads. I can't guess whether Trump wins either MI or WI which he needs for having lost NC. My gut tells me no.
