Welcome home, fellow Gator.

The Gator Nation's oldest and most active insider community
Join today!

Trump vs. Harris - Please put all new polls here.

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by rivergator, Jul 24, 2024.

  1. gatordavisl

    gatordavisl VIP Member

    31,785
    54,915
    3,753
    Apr 8, 2007
    northern MN
    I'm not a sucker. You made yer bed, but I'll believe that you occupy it when it happens. Prolly see some weird poster drop election conspiracy crap under the name Caloosahatchee or some such if Trumph loses.
     
    • Like Like x 1
    • Winner Winner x 1
  2. CaptUSMCNole

    CaptUSMCNole Premium Member

    2,979
    179
    343
    May 23, 2007
    NCR
    I’m a little skeptical of your thesis that early voting is somehow influencing the methodology of polling firms. While it is possible, I don’t think it makes a lot of sense. If a polling firm believes their methodology is accurate, it would not need to take early voting into account. The results would still reflect how the entire state would vote, whether early or on election day.
     
  3. oragator1

    oragator1 Premium Member

    22,885
    5,579
    3,488
    Apr 3, 2007
    We will see in five days :).
     
  4. G8tas

    G8tas GC Hall of Fame

    4,460
    902
    453
    Sep 22, 2008
    Polls show Harris with big early-vote lead — despite GOP gains

    >Recent national ABC News-Ipsos, New York Times-Siena College and CNN polls show Harris with between a 19- and a 29-point advantage among voters who say they’ve already cast ballots. Those margins range from a 59-40 edge in the Times-Siena poll to a 62-33 edge in the ABC-Ipsos one.

    >All of them are well shy of Biden’s margins in late 2020 polls, when Democrats embraced mail voting and Trump attacked it and persuaded his supporters not to do it.

    >But they are better than Clinton did in an arguably more comparable election, in 2016. Back then, late Washington Post-ABC News and McClatchy-Marist College polls showed Clinton leading by between eight and 16 points among those who said they had cast ballots early.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/10/31/polls-show-harris-with-big-early-vote-lead-despite-gop-gains/

    The silent majority will be heard
     
    • Informative Informative x 2
  5. gator_fever

    gator_fever GC Legend

    884
    81
    1,968
    Nov 3, 2013
    Looking at recent polls and the hard data especially in the party registration states I think Trump is very likely to win NC, AZ and NV. I think GA and the rust belt area 3 are the swing states that could go either way now.
     
    • Funny Funny x 2
    • Best Post Ever Best Post Ever x 1
  6. citygator

    citygator VIP Member

    11,170
    2,507
    3,303
    Apr 3, 2007
    Charlotte
    Looks like Matt Bevin is throwing a Trump victory party. His prediction is a lock.
     
  7. citygator

    citygator VIP Member

    11,170
    2,507
    3,303
    Apr 3, 2007
    Charlotte
    Ha ha. Welcome back. You must really think Trump is going to win to swing by this week. Cant wish you luck though.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  8. gatorchamps960608

    gatorchamps960608 GC Hall of Fame

    4,507
    939
    2,463
    Jul 4, 2020
    This is why he will bet on leaving. He disappeared for years after that post and changed handles to return. There's no way he was ever posting again if Trump loses anyhow.
     
    • Agree Agree x 3
  9. Gatorhead

    Gatorhead GC Hall of Fame

    17,647
    5,742
    3,313
    Apr 3, 2007
    Philadelphia
    I never thought I would miss the Bush's so much.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
    • Funny Funny x 1
  10. HeyItsMe

    HeyItsMe GC Hall of Fame

    1,730
    512
    2,038
    Mar 7, 2009
    Funny, all the current data that’s starting to come out shows Trump getting crushed in many of the swing states, particularly PA. If women significantly outvote men in this election, which is currently happening, he isn’t winning. Period.
     
    Last edited: Nov 1, 2024 at 8:36 AM
    • Like Like x 1
  11. citygator

    citygator VIP Member

    11,170
    2,507
    3,303
    Apr 3, 2007
    Charlotte
    There are always more women voters.... but maybe will be even a bigger gap this year.

    [​IMG]
     
    • Informative Informative x 2
  12. CaptUSMCNole

    CaptUSMCNole Premium Member

    2,979
    179
    343
    May 23, 2007
    NCR
    You are absolutely correct! :)
     
  13. CaptUSMCNole

    CaptUSMCNole Premium Member

    2,979
    179
    343
    May 23, 2007
    NCR
    What did Bevin say? I cannot find anything on it.
     
  14. HeyItsMe

    HeyItsMe GC Hall of Fame

    1,730
    512
    2,038
    Mar 7, 2009
    Women are pissed this cycle and will be turning out in record numbers. Combine that with all the Puerto Rican Americans who are eligible to vote who are now equally pissed and the only demographic Trump has on his side are the religious nut jobs and the uneducated white males. Not sure how he expects to win with that.
     
  15. Gatorhead

    Gatorhead GC Hall of Fame

    17,647
    5,742
    3,313
    Apr 3, 2007
    Philadelphia
    Hey everyone (Well actually this is directed to Democrats, Liberals, Progressives, Environmentalists, the Educated, the Sane,
    those with Empathy, Kind People, Animal Lovers, Academic's, Intellectuals, Pro Ukranians, Nato Supporters, The Military, Immigrants, the Erudite and those whom enjoy Classical Music):

    I am creating a NEW start up should Trump/Maga win from my cave in Colorado.

    I'm calling it - The Reverse Flow Migration thru the Darien Gap or RFMDG on the Nasdaq.

    We will be offering guides, backpacks, water bottles, K-Rations, insect repellent, boots and socks, and temporary housing in S America. We expect huge growth with a MAGA victory and are going public Nov. 8th should that happen! Be on the lookout for this exciting opportunity!
     
    Last edited: Nov 1, 2024 at 9:23 AM
  16. sflagator

    sflagator VIP Member Trusted GC Insider

    14,643
    9,572
    3,453
    Apr 3, 2007
    From the guy who wouldn't bet $$ because of.... "concerns" lol
     
  17. BigCypressGator1981

    BigCypressGator1981 GC Hall of Fame

    6,686
    1,371
    3,103
    Oct 11, 2011
    • Like Like x 2
  18. gator_fever

    gator_fever GC Legend

    884
    81
    1,968
    Nov 3, 2013
    Target Smart modeling is a joke in non party states based on 2020. PA even with party status is hard to guage but some things look good for Trump. I do think MI is Trumps worst swing state again but that Trump has a good chance to win WI.
     
  19. gator_fever

    gator_fever GC Legend

    884
    81
    1,968
    Nov 3, 2013
    • Funny Funny x 1
  20. citygator

    citygator VIP Member

    11,170
    2,507
    3,303
    Apr 3, 2007
    Charlotte
    How were they in 2022?

    Marist Poll’s Success in the Midterms — MARIST CIRCLE
    The 2022 Midterms are in the past and the Marist Poll proved to be one of the most successful polling organizations with its accuracy. In the final battleground state polls, the Marist Poll went six for six in predicting the correct winner of each race.

    “The reason this was the best year for us was because our numbers were close and we used new methodologies,” Director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion Lee Miringoff said.
     
    • Like Like x 2