The first votes have been cast in the election

She offended a lot of GOP voters in AZ by stating categorically that any McCain supporters "should get the hell out of the Republican party." She also called the Pinal county sheriff a coward, which further alienated GOP voters. She's too MTG for a state like AZ.

 

But Trump, who said we shouldn't celebrate McCain because he got caught in Vietnam, is acceptable? Lake is the female version of Trump. The question is, why does the Trump schtick work for him, but not for Lake in the same state? And maybe people are willing to put up for Trump for 4 years, versus possibly Lake for many years if she's re-elected. But Arizona is also a state that has voted D against MAGA candidates just about every election since 2020.

 

Lake, though, made her career sucking on the fake election Trump Teet.

 

Didn’t Trump say the same thing, in more vulgar terms?!

 

Anyone notice that when a certain poster apparently disagrees with a post he rates it "funny" rather than "disagree" and almost never attempts to actually rebut it?

 

Wayne county turnout looks low, especially when you consider rural county EV has been shut down in Michigan. As a share of the ballots cast so far (both EV and mail), Wayne is running about 15.3% of the total statewide vote, whereas in the 2020 election, Wayne made up about 15.8% of the statewide vote. Again, this is with rural counties EV being shut down so one would have to conclude that Wayne's share of the total vote count is only going to go lower from here.

 

I think there are a several reasons: 1. Trump's schtick only seems to work for him. 2. Lake actually told McCain supporters that she did not want their support. 3. Like you pointed out, Trump is maxed out at 4 years but AZ could be stuck with Lake for 12+ years if elected. I can see a lot of R voters skipping the Senate election based on the assumption that Republicans are winning back the senate already and do not need AZ to do it.

 

Maybe, but I think more repubs are voting early because Trump said it's ok now. I've been monitoring the gender voting stats on the UF site. It is encouraging.

 

Early voting doesn't predict results

The early vote doesn't reliably predict results.

Please Don’t Pay (Much) Attention to Early Voting Numbers

 

Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain!!

 

Interesting look at first time voters by party and gender in swing states. In Pennsylvania, D women are leading the way. And more new voters are women over men. In Arizona, different story. R men are the largest group of new voters. But much larger block of Indie voters that could possibly negate any advantage.

 

More than half million cast in NE Fla so far. I zipped in and out pretty quickly yesterday.

Early voting Florida totals: Duval turnout lags St. Johns, Clay, Nassau

 

So the thinking is that young women make up more of the roughly 400k firewall Democrats have developed in early voting and there will be a much larger Democratic turnout on Election Day this year?

 

You have to request a ballot in Pennsylvania. 1.6M requested in 2024 and 3M requested in 2020 due to pandemic. You do the math... you think more people will vote on voting day in Pennsylvania?

I dont think they track gender in PA so cant really tell there. NC its tilted very much towards women by 10%.. 41% to 51% with 7% unknown.

 

According to that NBC article, PA does track by gender. You think that more Democrats are going to show up on election day to vote in person that will negate the Republican election turnout advantage that we have seen in the past? FYI, I'm trying to get an understanding of how Democrats are seeing this race since it is varying from '20 and '16 a good bit when it comes to early voting.

 

If this is true, not looking good for Diaper Don.

 

With 1.4 million less requested early ballots in PA as compared to 2020, what party do we think the majority of these who did not request an early ballot come from? Considering Trump railed against early ballots four years ago, and more Rs voted on election day in 2020 than Ds, the majority of people who voted early in 2020 but did not request an early ballot in 2024 will most likely be Ds.

The early ballot first time voters by gender and party in PA is quite encouraging for Harris. It looks like she'll have her 400k firewall, and there will likely be more D voters on election day than there were four years ago.