I'm not a sucker. You made yer bed, but I'll believe that you occupy it when it happens. Prolly see some weird poster drop election conspiracy crap under the name Caloosahatchee or some such if Trumph loses.
I’m a little skeptical of your thesis that early voting is somehow influencing the methodology of polling firms. While it is possible, I don’t think it makes a lot of sense. If a polling firm believes their methodology is accurate, it would not need to take early voting into account. The results would still reflect how the entire state would vote, whether early or on election day.
Polls show Harris with big early-vote lead — despite GOP gains >Recent national ABC News-Ipsos, New York Times-Siena College and CNN polls show Harris with between a 19- and a 29-point advantage among voters who say they’ve already cast ballots. Those margins range from a 59-40 edge in the Times-Siena poll to a 62-33 edge in the ABC-Ipsos one. >All of them are well shy of Biden’s margins in late 2020 polls, when Democrats embraced mail voting and Trump attacked it and persuaded his supporters not to do it. >But they are better than Clinton did in an arguably more comparable election, in 2016. Back then, late Washington Post-ABC News and McClatchy-Marist College polls showed Clinton leading by between eight and 16 points among those who said they had cast ballots early. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/10/31/polls-show-harris-with-big-early-vote-lead-despite-gop-gains/ The silent majority will be heard
Looking at recent polls and the hard data especially in the party registration states I think Trump is very likely to win NC, AZ and NV. I think GA and the rust belt area 3 are the swing states that could go either way now.
Ha ha. Welcome back. You must really think Trump is going to win to swing by this week. Cant wish you luck though.
This is why he will bet on leaving. He disappeared for years after that post and changed handles to return. There's no way he was ever posting again if Trump loses anyhow.
Funny, all the current data that’s starting to come out shows Trump getting crushed in many of the swing states, particularly PA. If women significantly outvote men in this election, which is currently happening, he isn’t winning. Period.
Women are pissed this cycle and will be turning out in record numbers. Combine that with all the Puerto Rican Americans who are eligible to vote who are now equally pissed and the only demographic Trump has on his side are the religious nut jobs and the uneducated white males. Not sure how he expects to win with that.
Hey everyone (Well actually this is directed to Democrats, Liberals, Progressives, Environmentalists, the Educated, the Sane, those with Empathy, Kind People, Animal Lovers, Academic's, Intellectuals, Pro Ukranians, Nato Supporters, The Military, Immigrants, the Erudite and those whom enjoy Classical Music): I am creating a NEW start up should Trump/Maga win from my cave in Colorado. I'm calling it - The Reverse Flow Migration thru the Darien Gap or RFMDG on the Nasdaq. We will be offering guides, backpacks, water bottles, K-Rations, insect repellent, boots and socks, and temporary housing in S America. We expect huge growth with a MAGA victory and are going public Nov. 8th should that happen! Be on the lookout for this exciting opportunity!
Marist (A+) Home of the Marist Poll | Polls, Analysis, Learning, and More Michigan: Harris 51%. Trump 48% Pennsylvania: Harris 50%. Trump 48% Wisconsin: Harris 50%. Trump 48%
Target Smart modeling is a joke in non party states based on 2020. PA even with party status is hard to guage but some things look good for Trump. I do think MI is Trumps worst swing state again but that Trump has a good chance to win WI.
How were they in 2022? Marist Poll’s Success in the Midterms — MARIST CIRCLE The 2022 Midterms are in the past and the Marist Poll proved to be one of the most successful polling organizations with its accuracy. In the final battleground state polls, the Marist Poll went six for six in predicting the correct winner of each race. “The reason this was the best year for us was because our numbers were close and we used new methodologies,” Director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion Lee Miringoff said.
