First 25 minutes is always worth a watch to hear where both sides think things stand. Some interesting points: Democrats think GA could go for Harris. Republicans are worried about NC more than GA. What happens if one side wins 270-268 and there is a faithless elector that switches it to 269-269?
Id rather 4 more years of trump fair and square rather than watching the system burn down just to get him into office if he loses.
Yes. But that was a midterm election. Historically, midterms polls aren't predictors of the next POTUS election. Look at 2010. The polls said red wave, but it underestimated just how large it would be. 2012, Obama won reelection rather easily, despite the polls thinking the race would be close.
I think the reason here is that the park out of favor wins back the house or the senate, and completely overplays their hand. So momentum swings back to the other party. That hasn’t really happened this time. The Dems got the senate back, but with the filibuster rule and pubs having the house, they haven’t passed anything to piss off the moderates. And most importantly for the Dems, the abortion laws have gotten worse not better which is still motivating their base, along with having a woman of color on the ballot. Plus Trump being an awful candidate who whips up a frenzy on both sides (not that Harris is an ideal for sure) though he has a base that he couldn’t lose if he shot each of them in the face. Both candidates are establishment, one with the current admin and one as previous prez and…So I am not sure this election can be correlated to any previous one. Which is why it’s close and why modeling and predictions are all over the map. But good news is that we will know in 5 days or so, fingers crossed.
Couldn't you say that the polls were accurate in '12 but the Obama Campaign had a much better ground game and was able to use that to turnout an extra 2% to 3% of voters in key states?
I'm headed to an abandoned 19th century mineshaft in Colorado, hidden entrance, I stashed plenty of supplies, including a 3 month winter cold weather survival kit, water, generator, the dog, 2 cats, and zombie combat gear. Claymores and trip wires only need the crimp connections. Mini Gun, 10,000 rounds of ammo, 2 saws, (the shootin kind) trap door with poison dipped spikes, and I'm sharing the cave with two grizzlies. (That like me) I'm ready.
Reuters is another good one: Some 89% of registered Democrats and 93% of registered Republicans in the poll said they were completely certain they would vote. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/ha...int-44-43-reutersipsos-poll-finds-2024-10-29/
Like clockwork, his national polling average ticked up 0.1 points today.. what's interesting is how accurate RCP had the 2016 popular vote.. until they didn't. (take a look at 10/31/2016 average) But that is not RCP's fault... they were simply going with the information given to them and ended up overestimating Hillary's win at 3.2 points.
Not sure if I believe this as these are clearly showing different results than some other polls in these states so they could be an outlier. If accurate, NC, AZ, and NV being outside the MoE, Trump would only need to win PA to get to 271. One of the reasons I think it is an outlier:
I will put it this way…here are the CNN exit polls from 2020, and Atlas’s samples used today. You can decide who is accurate, but their sampling is all over the map. There’s no way 52 percent of the state is college educated, and there is no way rurals will overperform by 50 percent if the CNN number is right. Nothing in this poll seems to make sense. If I had to bet, they are using early voting as a proxy for the sampling, which will be proven inaccurate one way or the other, as it almost always is. Could still get to the number they claim, but I would be shocked if it resembles what they have here. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2024/Atlas-Poll-US-Swing-States-31-10-2024-Arizona.pdf Arizona 2020 President exit polls. Funny though, on the other side, she made solid gains in the rust belt states. If she wins those Arizona doesn’t matter.
I don't know about Lake winning, but I would not be surprised if Trump wins Arizona by 4 or even 5 points. It is already a Republican haven there and immigration is at the top of their priority list.
