Trump vs. Harris - Please put all new polls here.

Kamala's going down

 

The polling has been flooded with pro Trump polling for various reasons. Trump admitted to this in the Rogan interview talking about how paying for these was annoying him.

Polymarket and 538 are Thiel and/or Musk manipulated.

There are some reputable polls that appear to be way oversampling republicans out of fear of missing a hidden Trump vote like in elections past. There is no proof this exists.

Several reputable polls have shown Harris with a 3-6 point lead.

A lot of the polling analysts are just ignoring the NPA vote which is likely to break big for Harris in the swing states.

Women are leading the early vote roughly 55-45%.

Trump appears to have a hard ceiling of 46% of the popular vote as he always has.

There is far more likely to be a hidden "Haley" Harris vote among republicans than vice versa.

Democratic voters in swing states that voted early in the past have stated they will wait to eday this year to avoid being part of the "red mirage" theme from 2020.

Harris has a legitimate and vigorous GOTV effort while the Musk Super PAC version is a joke and may be criminal.

And you know what? I still think it's highly possible that Trump wins. But let's look at the 2 campaigns: Trump is canceling appearances and screaming about fraud. Harris is appearing before record crowds and playing the happy warrior. Which campaign seems more stressed out about how things are going?

 

Why current perceived gender gaps in EV figures don't matter, by @okeechobee:

Georgia 2020. Females outvoted males 56-44%. Biden won the state by 11,000~ votes.
Other Georgia 2020 facts: 61% of voters were white; 29% black; 10% asian/hispanic/other
38% of 2020 voters voted Clinton in 2016; 40% of 2020 voted Trump in 2016%
In 2020 in Georgia, 56% of the voters were age 45 or older; 44% were 18-44 years old (this is all from CNN exit polling data with 4,385 respondents)
Georgia 2020 President exit polls.

Now let's look at voting so far in 2024 in Georgia: female 55.8%; male 43.8% (virtually same)
whites 59%; blacks 26%; others 15%
turnout as a % of vote thus far of age 50+ or older: 61.1%
this is important, because data show us that only 7% of voters age 50+ who voted on Election Day in 2020 have early voted this year, indicating there is still plenty of gas left in that tank
only 9.3% of whites who voted on election day in 2020 have early voted in 2024
males actually lead females (as a % of the EV so far) from people who did not vote in 2020
we can see that blacks actually lead whites at this point in percentage of people who voted early in 2020 having voted early this year also (blacks 76.3%; whites 73.4%)
(source: www.georgiavotes.com)

Conclusions:
- younger voters in GA have a ton of ground to make up on older voters even though older voters still seem to have a lot left in the tank with only 7% of their Election Day 2020 voters having voted early this year, despite having a huge advantage in EV currently over younger voters.
- men will likely end up cutting into that 12 point deficit a little. I could see it getting down to a 55%-45% split once all votes are counted
- voter turnout of 2020 voters lags the statewide average significantly in Dekalb County, which Biden won 85% of the vote and is a high population area of eastside Atlanta.

Final conclusion: Trump turnout is higher compared to 2020; Harris turnout is lower in comparison to Biden turnout in 2020. (so far) Even if the 12-point gender gap in voters holds in Georgia, as you can see, President Trump only needs to make up 11,000~ votes to get it done. I suppose this is why most analysts have all but given up on a Harris win in Georgia. But I think Georgia (despite not showing party affiliation) has some of the most illuminating early voting stats out there. Check it out: www.georgiavotes.com

 

So you'll take up a bet with me that if Harris wins, I'll stop posting on THFSG for one year and if Trump wins, you'll stop posting on THFSG for one year? (moderators will enforce)

 

No but if Trump wins, I may just become only a passive reader of anything political online. I wouldn't want to put my life or my family's at risk as an enemy of the regime.

 

Based on this graphic, I'm going to be gracious (despite the errors favoring Dems 54% of the time) and say Emerson is our most steady pollster from 2014-22. They have a larger sample size over that period and a pretty low error rate in comparison to most of the other polls that have their volume or more.

Emerson 2024 national polling:
10/24: 49-49% even
10/16: Harris +1
10/1: Harris +1
9/4: Harris +1

All four scenarios are Trump wins, due to electoral college and their most recent poll gives him a shot at winning the popular.

Emerson 2024 PA polling:
10/22: Trump +1
10/8: Trump +1
9/18: Trump +1
8/28: 48-48% even

As you can see, remarkable consistency in these polls as well. Emerson also has Trump winning in NC, Georgia and AZ as of their latest polls in those states.

 

So, you're stating your family's life will be at risk due to Trump becoming POTUS, but you won't put your THFSG posting rights up for a year? How about 90 days?

 

He has threatened Democrats openly as have his surrogates, so yes.

 

Only a 9.1% margin of error. But even if true, you understand this is horrible for Harris, right? PA is the only state of the 3 that gives us party registration breakdown of votes thus far. And thus far, here's the vote count by party registration in PA:



So if we assume each party votes for their own party (tracks with CNN exit polling data from 2020), that would mean in your numbers posted above that Trump is winning the Independent/NPA vote in PA by 34 points (67% to 33%) over Harris. Good luck...

 

From the bottom of your tweet:

Laura Trump (Republican National Committee Co-Chair) stated: "We immediately investigated and have CONFIRMED that it was a glitch in the system - these duplicates were not and WILL NOT BE COUNTED."

 

So you shouldn't have any problem agreeing to a 90 day ban from THFSG if Trump wins, because after all, you'd be putting your family at risk of retribution from the Trump crime organization if you continue posting your anti-Trump rants here, right?

 

Trumpers in shambles.

 

It is difficult to prove these things, but they are possible. Still there is one thing that I think needs explaining: if the polls and markets are so obviously being manipulated, why aren’t people taking the 3:1 bet for Harris? It would seem like very easy money.

 

Already mentioned by another poster, the fact that Donald and the Trump campaign have turned up the volume on their narrative of alleged voter fraud in Pennsylvania is an indication that their own internal polling is pointing to the possibility that the former president is in real danger of losing the state. If they were confident that Trump would be carrying the state they wouldn't be obsessing about alleged although in reality nonexistent voter fraud.

 

Digging further into CNN exit polling from PA in 2020:

Breakdown of voters based on Ideology
3,090 total respondents

Liberal 24%
Moderate 42%
Conservative 34%

As we know, Biden was viewed at that time as a moderate Democrat for the most part, based on his track record over the previous 40+ years. Pretty sure Harris is going to be considered a liberal, despite her attempts to flop on fracking and immigration. We know who conservatives are going to vote for. I think they'll be able to call PA within a couple of hours next Tuesday night. They may wait until 11pm to call PA, because of Arizona would still be voting and winning PA all but assures Trump the presidency.

 

Could it possibly be an indicator they just don't want voter fraud happening regardless of what their internals show? I think that's the more likely scenario.

 

Remember, we have a Dem governor in PA who wields a lot of power and that is very possibly the reason Harris did not select him. His lack of concern about the early line cutoff scandal in eastern PA earlier this week indicates he's not above tampering. So even if my internal polling showed me with a +5 point lead, I would be watching PA very closely as a GOP candidate.

 

On example of the alleged voter fraud. The Trump campaign posted a video which they claimed was alleged "ballot harvesting" when in fact it was a postal worker who was properly handling ballots. That's an example of the voter fraud that they're alleging in Pennsylvania.
Right-wing media and conspiracy theorists spread debunked viral video falsely claiming a Pennsylvania postmaster was illegally harvesting ballots

 

Polls historically are off about 2% - 4% every cycle. Usually all in one direction or the other. 2012, Obama was underestimated. 2016 and 2020, Trump was. The big questions today are just how accurate are the polls, and which way may they be off this time around?

History says the polls will underestimate Harris this time. Never have the polls underestimated a candidate from one party in three polls in a row. To avoid making the same mistake for a third time, pollsters historically overcompensate and wind up moving the needle too far in the direction of the party that was underestimated the last two cycles. Not saying this will happen, but if Trump is underestimated again, it would be the first time in polling history the same party has been underestimated three times in a row.

There's also no guarantee voters will go party line, especially at the top. Yesterday, Senator Flake of Arizona went to vote and held a Republicans for Harris rally afterwards at a nearby park in Scottsdale. The rally was small, with only a few dozen attending, but the event made all major news stations and reported in all the large state newspapers.