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Article that talks about not trusting the early vote, with the exception of NV. Please Don’t Pay (Much) Attention to Early Voting Numbers I'm not sure I totally agree with it because you have enough data to do statistical modeling and stress test the models to see what % of Indies and % of holding their own voters a candidate needs to win. You can get a rough idea of how big of a firewall a candidate may having going into election day.
Forget Rasmussen for a moment. Out of these 14 most recent national polls, there is only 1 that shows a possible Harris victory scenario and that's the Morning Consult poll which has been an outlier this entire cycle and it's not even certain Harris would win the EC with a 3 point win in the popular vote. So you have at least 13 out of 14 polls here taken in the last two weeks that show a Trump victory scenario, 1 poll showing a possible Harris win (Biden needed a 4.4 point win to secure the EC in 2020). If we throw out Rasmussen and Morning Consult, he wins 12 out of 12 times. At best you're seeing an 8% chance of a Harris win in these polls. RCP's aggregate underestimated Trump in 2016 and 2020, btw, so telling us they are inflating his numbers when you see Reuters, CBS, Emerson, NY Times, CNN and WSJ on that list isn't going to get you very far.
It's difficult, because we really have no solid, early voting baseline. 2020 happened during a global pandemic, which caused more people to vote by mail than if there were no COVID. We also had Trump rail against voting by mail, which might have caused more Rs to vote on election day versus their actual, preferred method. With that, we do have exit polls from places with early polls open. Plus other polls along with past results that allow us to take educated guesses. But that's really all they are, and these guesses become meaningless in less than a week, when states start releasing actual results.
Marquette has Harris at +1 with a +5 R sample. I still don't understand why polls keep oversampling Republicans
They're all within the statistical margin of error and are very similar to the polls at this point in the 2012 cycle.
I guess posters have been over sampling Republicans because they are afraid to be wrong about Trump supporters again. If they under count the number of hair supporters and it wouldn't be as big of a deal
After reviewing the Qualified Voter File (QVF) of votes actually cast as of yesterday, Oct 29, 2024, the database identifies 114,545 Michigan voters who have cast 279,113 ballots from multiple addresses across the state. This results in 164,568 excess ballots as of 10/29/2024. Below is one Voter ID
I think the fact we have the early voting by party, polls of the electorate in the state that shows how Indie's are feeling, as well as the defections from both parties gives you enough data to run the numbers. You can figure out exactly the brake down each candidate would need to have to meet certain points, like D's 400k firewall in PA, and then bounce that off of the polls that have been published. It is all assumptions and there is no guarantee that they are accurate but you do get a strong sense of where both candidates might be going into election day.
A look at Broward county, as of now. GOP are turning out 3% more of their voters than Dems. Here's the kicker.. this includes all of the mail in vote which is mostly finished. Democrats dominate mail in voting disproportionately. But GOP are turning out a much higher percentage of their registrants for in-person voting. We could see a 10% delta between the turnout % of GOP versus turnout % of Dem voters before it's all said and done. (+10% to GOP in voter turnout in Broward). This still has me thinking Trump could approach a 20% margin of victory for the state. Santa Rosa county, for example, are very likely to break turnout records.
Unfortunately, you don't get to go back to 2012 and switch out the two candidates if you're making an honest analysis, especially when the constant variable (Trump in '16 and '20) in question hasn't changed and has been underestimated in the prior two elections. But whatever keeps the dream alive for you...
There's a CNN Data Analyst that is saying this exact thing. Polls are often off by between 2% to 4%, and usually all break for one candidate. 2012, Obama was underestimated. 2016 and 2020, it was Trump. Pollsters may be scared of making the same mistake a third time, so they may be overcompensating? The analyst Enten has stated polls haven't underestimated the same party three POTUS elections in a row. And if Trump support is underestimated this time around, it would be unprecedented. Not that it can't happen, just it's never happened before.
Not that it matters much because it’s still a tossup, but WI flipped back to her today behind a +6 poll from CNN. So WI and MI have both flipped back the last few days.
I want to see the final averages but my guess is many polls will underestimate Trump big time in WI and MI again. I do think MI will be Trump's weakest state out of the 7 swing states though.
