The election betting thread

I do see that AtlasIntel has Trump by only 0.5% in North Carolina, so it could be a lot closer than I think. We'll see.

 

Wow, this is already up to 12 pages—have you made a lot of bets?

I’m very biased on this election so predicting is tricky. That’s why I usually avoid betting on my favorite teams (UF, UCF, Dolphins).

But I think Trump has the advantage. His supporters are incredibly enthusiastic— cult-like. That kind of motivation often outweighs voting just to oppose someone. Four years ago, Biden at least had some momentum vs Harris does now.

I hope and pray I’m wrong - Trump will be awful for our country and the world. We’ve never seen such a strong, visceral reaction from a former administration as the one directed toward him.

 

It should be a no-brainer to anybody that has an active gambling account. Regardless of who actually wins, it's an easy opportunity to play both sides for, essentially, plus money. When I checked earlier today, online odds for Harris were +177; If you properly split the bet, you could guarantee a roughly 16% positive return on action.

Go GATORS!
,WESGATORS

 

You want to go straight up $2,000 on the electoral college? I got Trump. Whoever holds the money gets $200 from the winner. Fair enough? Let's keep it nice and friendly. I'll FedEx my $ 2K in cash to the 3rd party if that's okay

 

Just out of curiosity, would the fake electors count, too, or just the official ones?

 

It's your vote and right. But yeah, it doesn't make a lot of sense to me when you clearly favor one of the two major party candidates.

 

Nor sure what you're talking about. Are you saying I can lose the bet if 2 members of the MSM falsely call the election for Harris? Not sure what you find wrong with the proposal.

 

Here’s what I can tell you from personal experience. There is a Member of Congress who lives in my neighborhood. In 2012, Obama’s second term, I recall vividly that the “red” polls were showing a close race. I was very much hoping for a Pub win.

My daughter and that Member’s daughter were friends at the time. And, I went to college with both the Congressman and the spouse.

On Halloween, when my daughter was trick or treating with the friend, we had pizza at their house. I recall talking about the polls,like Breitbart and Drudge over pizza. The race was razor-thin close according to the polls. The congressman then proceeded to tell me some of the information that the congressman had.

I was told that the Breitbart polls, the Drudge polls, and even the MSM (wasn’t called that at the time) polls were wrong. Obama was going to win by a landslide. I was told specific examples.

Obama won by a landslide. Every example I was told was exact. The voting information at the fingertips of someone who absolutely knew what was going on was stunning.

The lesson? Don’t bet on elections and understand, the understand and discount the source from which you are reading and relying.

 

I took your bet. What are you talking about. Seems like you think if Trump wins I should lose the bet if 2 MSM networks wrongly declared Harris the winner. I would prefer that if Trump assumes office 8n January I win. If Harris becomes our 47th president, you win.

Sounds like you're making excuses to get out of the bet.

Again, I accepted your bet. Why are you pretending I didn't?

I haven't "shirked" on any bet btw. Cluckuggator and others attacked my intelligence like a poster here did yesterday. He wanted to see a standardized test score from me. I told him I had four 99% on my pharmacy college admission test. He accepted my $2000 bet that I did have four 99's.Unfortunately the College of Pharmacy at UF no longer has my transcripts and they told me the office of studen5 affairs wouldn't have them either. I have 3 people who will probably remember I had the highest PCAT in my pharmacy class but I don't think Cluckugator would accept that as evidence. The reality is I won the bet but can't prove it without my transcriBTW.

The retired college professor who was a few feet from me as I read out my PCAT scores to him is on X (twitter). I'm pretty sure he will remember my four 99%.

 

I accepted the terms of your bet.

I simply clarified we were talking about the electoral college and not the popular vote and if 2 MSM outlets wrongly declare Harris the victor and then ret4act than I don't lose my money.

How could you lose money if I FedEx your mod of choice CASH like I said I would?

If you want to know who the "fraud" and the "weasel" is look in the mirror.

Classic confession by projection.


Regarding my bet with Cluckugator, would I have been calling the pharmacy office back in August to get my PCAT scores if I thought I was going to lose the bet? I only placed the bet because people were calling me stupid so I decided to take someone's cash. Money talks and bullschlitz walks.

You walked.

My phone calls to the pharmacy office at UF:

 

Are you suggesting using two diff betting markets? Either way, I'd like to see the math on that. How are you making bank playing both sides?

 

classic arbitrage. two diff prices/inconsistent pricing

Arbitrage in Sports Betting: How Can Businesses Detect It? (2024)


Let’s say the player bets $195:

• $45 on W1
• $50 on W2
• $100 on X

For a while, FTX was simultaneously buying bitcoin on 1 exchange & selling it on another, taking adv of diff prices. In efficient mtks arbitrage opportunities are hard to come by & quickly evaporate. Thiner mkts that are less efficient & can provide arbitrage opportunities. I have a friend who made millions doing this with pipeline/refinery capacity. West Tx NG mkts can be rilly whack...with occasional neg prices.

I know of a PhD in electrical engineering who studied the placement & angles of solar panels in solar fields & made an absolute killing in energy futures mtks.

 

So what's the betting ticket consist of? By my unofficial count, I've got:

• Chubee for 1yr Too Hot ban
• Snatchguy for 1k
• Other Snatchguy for an undisclosed amt

M I missing anything?

 

So the snatch guys are betting on the P grabbing guy? Can’t make that Shiite up if you try

 

Thanks. I was thinking of you when I asked the Q and knew you'd have the answer. I gotta question the odds, though. Who is getting 4.5 to 1 on Harris and 4 to 1 on Trump? I can see it by making wagers at vastly different times, but that didn't seem to be what WES was suggesting. Also, is the draw a necessary inclusion in the case of the election bet? I guess, if it's an EC bet that there can indeed be a draw.

Edit: I know those odds are hypotheticals, but is there really such a gambling spread on this election?