Trump vs. Harris - Please put all new polls here.

Wow...

 

I think many are forgetting that the more important letter for this election may not be R and D, but rather M and F, as in male and female. In Arizona, there is a contingent of R women that find Trump vile and will never vote for him. Especially among the LDS population. For Independents, abortion is on the ballot in Arizona this year.

Could help explain the Ispos splits of those who have already voted. If the Texas numbers are accurate, than Harris is +18 to +20 among women. In Arizona, women represent about 55% of all the votes cast.

 

So the change is not necessarily GOP voting earlier, although some of that is happening.. it's Dems not showing up which aligns more with reality.

 

To get Harris to 56% based off today's numbers, Harris would have to be winning 13% of R's and 100% of D's, and 70% of Indies. Do you think that level of support would have been reflected in the polls?

Can you please link the Ispos poll? Or do you mean the Marist poll of early voters?

 

Said it before, rather than more Republican votes it's probably much more of a case of Republicans voting early rather than waiting to cast their votes in person on election day. MAGA nation tends to march in lockstep and this time around Trump has given them permission to vote early. Four years he ago he told them to vote on election day. I would also add that at least some of the early Republican voters (probably between 10 and 20 percent) are Republican-registered women who are voting for Harris.

 

Interesting that the Harris campaign is pulling out of NC and pulling into VA with ad buys.

 

Marist poll. My mistake. Too many darn polls out there.

I think the Indies made up the majority of the undecideds in Arizona. Which was as high as 11% of the electorate in some of the more recent polls. I can see most of them breaking for Harris. Especially women and minorities. Trump's MSG "lovefest" isn't going to help him too.

I can also see 13% crossover support among the Rs in Arizona that would not be reflected in the polls. These people are lifelong Rs, and the thought of voting D is difficult for them to swallow let alone admit to anyone. They were silent four years ago and crossed-over at around 9%. That same 9% is likely the vocal ones like the Mesa Mayor this time around. The question is what percentage of R voters will they bring with them this time who will be the silent crossovers?

It's purely anecdotal, but I live in Gilbert, which shares a large border with Mesa, along with a large LDS population. Four years ago, there were about a dozen Trump signs in my neighborhood. This year? Just one. My neighbors could be the silent Harris supporters, who don't want to admit to anyone who they are really voting for?

 

Although she cut ad buys she still has two scheduled appearances in NC. If there was a high probability that Trump will be carrying NC she wouldn't be campaigning in that state. While she is behind Trump in multiple polls all are close enough that they are within the statistical margin of error. If I had to bet I would put my money on Trump to carry NC but it's by no means a sure thing.
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Is there any polling that shows that up to 20% of Republican women are willing to voting for Harris or is this an assumption it could happen because of abortion and Trump's personality? Any chance Harris holds less than 95% of Democratic voters?

 

Not predicting New Jersey will flip to Trump, but this gives you an idea about voter enthusiasm. Early in-person began on Saturday in Jersey. So far:

 

Just a guess, probably closer to 10 to 15%.

 

Looks like Trump should Winn NC by 6 actually.

What you should do is listen to Rich Baris @Peoples_Pundit "Inside the Numbers" podcast and during political season listen to Rich Baris and Robert Barnes "What are the Odds" podcast

North Carolina is notoriously hard to poll. I believe I've heard Baris say one r3ason is because of errors in the 2020 Census.

North Carolina is like Ohio in 2020. Pollsters had it a toss-up and Baris had Trump +8. Baris was a massive outlier but Trump won by 8.3.

Better to listen to the best pollster, not a bunch of suspect polls

 

You’d think she has money to burn. Where is she spending it?

 

Based on the website that tracks campaign ad spending, the Harris campaign simultaneously increased their spend in Virginia by a lot.

 

It’s gonna be a crazy Tuesday night.

 

Yes, she does have money to burn.

I think the Sun Belt is trending Trump but I have not seen anything to suggest the Rust Belt, Blue Walls states are. If that happens, Harris wins.

 

I think this is clearly the case. He pushed early voting this year so his cult voted early.

 

yeah if that’s trafalgar’s final Nevada poll Harris is in great shape.

 

I keep mentioning it, but early voting there is awful for the Dems, their turnout is 8r 9 percent behind the pubs. If it doesn't pick up what the polls say won’t matter much. This guy knows the state better than anyone.

The early voting blog, 2024 - The Nevada Independent

 

There are only three more days of early in person voting for NV, so there needs to be a sharp increase in Democrats early vote to close the 5% lead Republicans have built so far.