The election betting thread

Already been accepted and counted! See, they make all these tools available to track your ballot, so in the rare event something like that happens you can do something about it.

 

I appreciate your commitment to integrity, Q. I would also say that vote by mail reduces transaction costs, and I think you are underestimating the value of that contribution. That is basically the entire product that Amazon offers.

Around here in Tampa, I’ve waited in line over an hour basically any time I’ve voted in person. I think my salary translates to $50/hr, so voting in person costs me $50-100, not included the agony of standing in this line for the whole time. My salary is likely higher than the US median, but I still don’t see why we should implement an extra nationwide cost of even a few million dollars (eg if all voters made minimum wage) to accomplish the core task of one of our foundational institutions.

 

Sitting on a fence implies I am undecided.
I'm not on a fence. I'm not even on the same parcel of land as the two candidates.

 

Recommended bets by Robert Barnes on Kalshi, the first legal US prediction market. Easy to set up account and wager.

Recommended bets by Robert Barnes. Recommended percent of bankroll to wager on the left. What odds you could get on the right. If you buy at 50% and you win you 2X your money. If you buy at 25% and win you 4X your money.

Last 2 lines you can't read on my screenshot:
2% Maine Trump 14%
1% Trump EC margin 105-154 13%

 

I’m no bettor. I am always happy to wager a beer, but I especially have no interest in taking sfla’s money (or having him take mine), so I’m not his huckleberry. I do think sfla is making a bad offer here though. Trump may lose (Hillary lost after all), but it just doesn’t seem like a 50/50 race right now. Even though I voted for Oliver, I’ll be rooting for Harris. Still I am not loving the state of the race right now.

 

When I early voted, there wasn't really a line. Plus, my polling place is basically across the street from where I live, so I just walked over. Was super easy. I don't trust them not to try some bullshit with vote by mail.

 

What?

 

I've only early voted a couple times in a general election, and I had to wait in line. To be fair it was a weekend, I think. I've never actually voted on election day, ever. Midterms or primaries I've gotten in and out in a few minutes. I could actually walk to my election day polling place right now, but I'm still like "nah, gonna request the mail in ballot again."

 

If I were a betting man I would have bet my house that Trump would lose in '16. Glad I don't bet. '16 proved to me that I don't any future in the prediction business.

I read recently that the most likely scenario was for Trump to sweep the swing states. It's only around 30% but of all possible outcomes it's the most likely. The second most likely outcome is for Harris to sweep the swing states. I just can't make sense out of that.

 

I know you disagree with me, as we’ve debated this issue in the past, but I have turned away from strategic voting to achieve particular outcomes. I’d much rather vote for someone I truly respect than against someone I truly disdain. While Oliver has no shot here, he’s still the option I believe in, and voting my beliefs is most important to me. I hope Trump loses, but that is not enough to push me to vote for Harris.

 

That sort of makes sense in a supposed 50/50 race where all the swing states are in the MOE. A small polling error either way and someone could run the table.

 

This is why its good never to be the trusted friend, you have to do chores for fools

 

The point was that the betting markets were way off in 2016 and they could be again. The post wasn't intended to be a prediction one way or the other but rather illustrative of the reliability or lack thereof of betting markets as a predictive tool. Speaking of the polls being way off, the Democratic candidates significantly outperformed the polls in the swing states in the 2022 midterms and it could happen again largely based on the abortion issue. It doesn't sit well with female voters when pregnant women are denied medical care in a timely manner as the result of vague and punitive anti-abortion laws which have had the effect of deterring doctors from providing care thanks to the threat of prosecution.

 

Much respect and welcome to the dark side.

 

They cant afford my handling fee anyway.

 

If Kamala Harris was a pork shoulder we could say she's fork tender and done
Time to pull her off the grill, wrap her in foil and let her rest.

Some people think AtlasIntel is the best poll.

 

Wow, you should be begging the OP to take your bet then

 

North Carolina is tough to poll. Trump is up 6 the opinion of Robert Barnes
Harris will lose there.