Polls continue to worsen for Harris. An InsiderAdvantage poll out today has Trump +1 in Wisconsin. Emerson today Trump +1 in Michigan.
If Polymarket was rigged or dominated by MAGA voters, she wouldn’t still be a 58% favorite to win the popular vote there.
What states specifically are you referring to where the early vote more for Democrats than Republicans? I'm tracking PA. Are there other ones?
Ignore that this is DailyKos, it’s a Marist poll and they have the data laid out well. Marist Poll: Harris leads with those who have already voted in AZ, NC ,GA
I'm not understanding how they are coming up with those numbers. Take AZ as an example, for Harris to be up in AZ leading 56% to 44% she would have to be winning 91% of all Indies. Assuming Harris is winning 10% of Republicans and not losing any Democrats, she would still have to be winning Indies by around 75% to 25%. Even if 15% of R's are crossing over, Harris still would have to be winning Indies 65% to 35%. I'm looking at the math and those are the assumptions you have to make for those numbers to hold up. Does that seem likely to you?
All of the swing state polling of people who have voted I've seen show Harris with comfortable leads. The independents are going heavily for her. Folks thinking they were going to swing in Trump's direction are delusional. He has done a masterful job of shrinking his base and it's going to get worse. Wait until polling starts to reflect Puerto Rico is a "floating island of garbage" and Latins "'come inside." That MSG rally has to be setting records for alienating the most voters in a single day.
Depends. Could be the most motivated Harris people are voting early, regardless of party and it will even out. Could partially be an MOE issue. Often on the Indy side the dem indies vote early so that could be a factor. I don’t think Arizona tells you which party actually voted so the numbers are estimated, that might be impacting things. Or the actual crossover delta next week could be larger than expected. But that’s what I was saying above, this likely isn’t jibing with what the poll models are assuming, so somewhere someone is going to be proven wrong. It was just weird to me that Trump’s turn up in the polls occurred the same time the early voting started looking favorable for him. We will see next week what the truth is. But the other polls posted above kinda back these numbers up, even if they are national. So it’s interesting to me.
There is no way to spin the current EV/absentee data we have as good for Harris. So they spin using assumptions that are extremely unrealistic and of course, unverifiable to keep hopium alive. I think it was Elon who pointed out yesterday that to date in Pennsylvania, GOP are doing 435k votes better against Dems than they did in PA up until yesterday's date in 2020. There's no way to spin that as good for Harris without concocting some truly outlandish scenarios.
Arizona does tell you voters by party. Those numbers are based on yesterday's vote totals. Harris would have to be winning Indies almost 2 to 1. I do not think that is a MOE Issue, as a different that big in AZ would be showing up in polling.
I think Harris getting 75% of the I votes in Arizona is a bit of a stretch, but not out of the realm of possibilities. I think 10% crossover vote from Rs voting Harris is on the lower end. I think the number is closer to 13% or even higher. 10% is the vocal support. Put the number of R crossovers at 13%, and that drops the I support to around 65% to Harris to get her to 55% of the votes already cast. If the Ispos poll is correct, then Harris already has a 150k firewall, which is about 40k higher than Biden had in 2020. Even at +5, that's still a decent firewall for Harris with a week to go before election day.
Ranking all counties in Georgia based on percentage of turnout of registered voters so far. Color coded by red states Trump won in 2020, blue states Biden won in 2020. Look at all that red at the top. Now look at all that blue at the bottom. Turnout as a percentage of registered voters is 37.0% statewide.
If the systemic error in the polls is similar to 2020 in which Trump outperformed the polls he will win the election. If it's more like 2022 when the Democratic candidates in the rust belt swing states outperformed the polls by +4% Harris wins the election. Two examples:
