Trump vs. Harris - Please put all new polls here.

Sorry, but I know it's going to be stolen. I can sense it.

 

Can you give a sense of the Mega Millions winning #s? Thanks!

 

Apparently you've never known anything intuitively.

 

Stop the steal. Make it a blow out.

 

It’s answers like this that make me think everything you post is sarcastic. The times I don’t think that I am less charitable in my thinking.

 

After the events of Sunday night my PR ass went to the polls on my lunch hour yesterday here in upstate NY. My extended family, who usually tunes out politics, are extremely motivated as well. My mom, who was born on the “floating island of garbage”…yeah she’s pissed off. My mom was not going to vote and decided she was going to. As she so eloquently put it “we are voting against that summamabytch”. Congrats to Trump and his little comedian on motivating folks like my mom to get out and vote.

 

I ran my ballot through right after a black 40-ish man in construction gear (hard hat, blaze vest). He voted for Harris.

So 100% of my exit poll of black men support Harris.

 

Agree. From RCP and the 10% was immediately following the selection of Walz as Harris's VP back in July.

 

So you're conceding that you sense a Harris victory?

 

Trump is at 66.3 on Polymarket

 

66.5

 

Some recent polls for NC, MI and PA.

 

Commentary from the BBC on how one of Trump's biggest backers feels about the election.
Moscow and Putin cautious about a Donald Trump second term

 

Some exit polling data starting to show up.

 

Nationally, women currently make up about 55% of all votes cast. They are now the majority voters in all swing states, with Nevada being the closest, as women just took over the majority. The gender gap can also help explain the betting markets. Among active gamblers, there is a gender gap of +10% more men than women.

 

Yeah, Trump isn’t winning this election. All he keeps doing is pissing off women and minority groups and all the MAGAs on this board seem to think that’s making him more popular than ever. Lol.

 

I mentioned this in the early voting thread, Emerson had a poll out a week or so ago in the swing states saying the same thing. Even in a state like NC she had a big lead in early voting, despite it being split evenly by registration.
Maybe it was coincidence, but when the early votes started to come in was exactly when the polls flipped for Trump by a point or two. It could have been the end of the debate bump for her and have a very rational explanation. But what I have been wondering is whether the modeling in the polls isn't picking this up - that the early vote is more dem than it appears on its face, and it is throwing off their number a bit. If you do the math the shift to Trump was almost exactly the difference in the early vote cast vs party affiliation times the percentage at the time. And why as we get to a larger number that’s more easily modeled, she is seeing a small bounce back in NC and MI for example (RCP flipped MI back to her today). Guess we will know whether it was a valid movement in a week or so.
Nevada is a whole other story, pubs are crushing voting there, they deserve any modeling benefit they are getting right now, even if somehow the Dems do come back late.

 

To my point, CNN had an AZ and a NV poll out today.
In the AZ poll, Harris is plus 1, she was -5 in their last poll there. NV has Trump +1. He was -1 in their last poll. So I think early voting is starting to become a more accurate predictor of expected results.