Trump vs. Harris - Please put all new polls here.

Nevada turnout

 

And to his point, yes, GOP early voting turnout is up a little bit, but just like the data show in Georgia, it's not up a crazy amount. GOP will still dominate in person voting on Election Day.

Conversely, there is no plausible explanation for the lack of D early voting in comparison to 2020 (with a pandemic to boot) other than lack of enthusiasm.

 

Actually, there's a simple explanation. There's a group of D voters who prefer to vote on election day except during a global pandemic. There are also likely a group of Ds who wish to avoid a repeat of election night four years ago, when Trump declared victory, only for the truth to be revealed later.

 

Just to make sure I unnderstand your point, you are suggesting that there are a group of Democratic voters that have decided to vote in person on election day rather than vote early in order to have their vote counted on election day?

 

Yes. It helps avoid a repeat of 2020 if Trump doesn't have a big lead on election night in places like Pennsylvania. The way to remedy this? Vote on election day instead of early.

 

Notables in the GA early voting data:

- 80% of black voters who voted early in 2020 have already voted this year.
- 76% of white voters who voted early in 2020 have already voted this year.
- 4% of black voters who voted on election day 2020 have voted early this year
- 8% of white voters who voted on election day 2020 have voted early this year

Here are the problems I see for Harris in the GA data:

1. All of the high population counties that went hardcore Biden in 2020 are reporting far lower percentage turnout in 2024 than are counties that went hard Trump. IOW, red counties are turning out in really high numbers and blue counties are lagging severely. Notably, Dekalb County which Biden won 83% of the vote in 2020 has a 62% turnout of 2020 early voters so far. Ditto for Fulton, Cobb, Clayton (85% Biden in 2020), Gwinnett, Richmond. All of these counties are higher populated counties that went hard Biden in 2020 and all of them have turnout in the low 60’s right now.
2. Comparatively, if we look at almost every county that went hard Trump in 2020, turnout is at 75% or higher for almost all of them, many of them 80% or higher, some Trump counties are in the damn 90’s for turnout.
3. All of this is with % of black EV at 80% turnout already throughout the state and with white turnout slightly less, which indicates the white vote has some room to run yet. (Which would close the gender gap to match gender breakdown of registered voters in the state)
4. Statewide total turnout to date is 1% higher than at this time in 2020, but that's only due to the fact the Trump counties are turning out so high. That statewide total would probably be up at a much higher rate if the Biden counties were showing up. Which indicates a gigantic delta in the turnout between each side thus far.
5. There’s just no way around the fact that Trump is crushing turnout in Georgia. Seems consistent with the theme I’m seeing in every battleground state.

Georgia Votes | County Viewer
https://www.politico.com/2020-election/results/georgia/

I’ll look at Michigan in my next update.

 

You think this is a strategy that Democrats are promoting?

 

In Michigan, all we have so far is mail-in data. I believe EV in person started there yesterday. (notable due to the Muslim imam's timing of Trump endorsement) But you can see the same trends:

Large population counties that went hard Biden in 2020 have a lower ballot return rate than do counties that went hard Trump in 2020. Notably: Wayne, Oakland, Ingham, Kalamazoo, Kent are all running on the lower end of returned ballot rate. Trump counties are running mostly on the high to very high end.

We'll obviously know more about Michigan when the EV in person data begins to come in.

 

So that's how probability works, ehh?

 

No. But there has been anecdotal evidence from door knockers saying this is happening.

 

Do you think the polls are inaccurate this time?
"My polls in my race all said I was going to lose by one or two points, and I carried it by five points. And everybody thought that Clinton was going to just kill him. And of course, no. And people thought that in 2020 Biden was going to have like five points. And I’m like, No, this isn’t going to be a five-point race here. And it wasn’t, and it was incredibly close. And that same thing has been replicated. And the only thing that’s changed is he’s more popular. And you have Elon Musk standing right next to him. So I’m not sure what else has changed, except if anything, Trump has become more capable to withstand whatever, you know, whether it was the trials or the assassination or all of those things, but here he is." - John Fetterman interview NY Times

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/26/...ytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

 

Have you pre-typed your election was stolen thread? Both you and I know you won't answer the question

 

FYI, this is coming from Halperin.

 

Trump got 46% of the vote in 2016 and 2020 and his polling average in 2024 is 46%.

Hillary Clinton was predicted to win nationally in 2016 at 3% and it was 2.1%.

The GOP is cannibalizing its eday vote being converted to early. They will run out shortly of rural, elderly white voters and the Dems will surge ahead of them.

There's a minimum of 10% probably more GOP "Haley voters" that won't vote for him.

Harris will likely exceed 50% of the popular vote. Women will make their voice heard that they won't be locked back up in the kitchen.

 

Yep. It’s pure fantasy land thinking Trump is going to come anywhere close to winning the popular vote. Look at the history and trends of previous elections he has run in, look at the fact that he’s still hugely unpopular overall and has way more baggage that’s happened since 2020, and it’s clear as day the polls simply have this way wrong. They just do, actual history tells us so.

 

The credible national polls show her up 3-5%.

 

Not sure about New Mexico, but it does seem inevitable he will land >312 electoral votes. One or more of the light blue leaners will go red. Turn out can flip the script quickly.

 

Yes it possible he somehow squeaks out an electoral college win but I would be shocked if she didn’t beat him by roughly 5 percent of the vote.

 

I'm not familiar with the rules in every state but in 2020 a lot of mail-in ballots were sent out without voters having to request them. In Nevada I know a person who got 4 ballots in the mail (in his name and for 3 other people who previously lived at the same address).This cycle you generally have to request a ballot. So mail-in balloting is way down (more for Dems than Pubs). This is good for Republicans. With fewer mail-in ballots floating around there will be fewer ballots to harvest.

 

If she wins by 5, she'll win the EC. It's 3 and under where it gets really dicey for her.