Early Voting Trends in Pennsylvania

He asked for my address again to send me a money order. lol. Still waiting.

 

Early vote trends mean nothing without the gender breakout. Women so far are outvoting men by significant margins nationally, according to data trackers.

 

Probably good for Kamala?

 

Would think so. Liz Cheney isn't the only crossover voter.

 

I’m …ahem… betting he has welched on bets in the past.

3 decades of betting no one has ever paid with a money order

 

You know how the mail is.

 

Yes, considering that the gender gap which dates back to 1980 is the largest in the history of polling. In fact this could be the first presidential election in well over 40 years in which the Democratic candidate receives the majority of votes of White women who have voted Republican in every presidential election since 1980.

 

I know of several white and brown women who won’t vote Kamala.
Surprising to me.

 

PA just reported but UF doesnt have it updated.

Dems 819k 58.3% of total, 70% returned
Pubs 438k 31.2% of total, 66% returned

Margin of 381K

Elections Data | Voting & Election Information | Commonwealth of Pennsylvania

 

This is the case I think. A non member can ignore another posters posts but the other poster can still see non members posts. A member can block you so the other poster can’t see their posts. Thus the blocking poster can create a thread and none of the blocked posters can participate in that thread - which can be a problem if that thread becomes the primary thread in a particular topic.

 

A real in depth look at Nevada, good read. I still don’t think he is allowing enough for a larger comeback (I think everyone who analyzes for a living has been thrown off by the changing tide of who votes early), but great info regardless.

The early voting blog, 2024 - The Nevada Independent

 

The thing not even seemingly discussed, what % of those R votes are going to be Harris voters?

In most elections I would assume voters crossing party lines would be a wash towards the net margin. No way in hell it’s anything but a net gain for Kamala. Based on those PA votes, could already be another +50,000 or +100,000 depending on whether it’s something like 5% of R’s or 10%. I would lean low side just because the “never Trump R vote” never fully materializes. But a bigger number wouldn’t be terribly surprising this time around.

 

Agree. Definitely a larger amount of R's will switch than D's. Not sure it's enough for harris to win. 1 week until we at least have an idea of how close it will be.