I listened to a couple of podcasts about that election from both staffs. The Youngkin people said that they really started to see movement in the polls after the pull out from Afghanistan. After McAuiffe's debate statement about parents should tell schools what to teach, is when Youngkin pulled even and by election day, he was up a point or two. Word is that Abigail Spanberger is going to be running as a Democrat next year. I think she probably wins easily if that happens.
Of the 13 most recent national polls posted on RCP, 11 of them show a Trump victory scenario, assuming the polls are not over or underestimating either candidate. An 84.6% implied probability of a Trump win. 15.4% implied probability of a Harris win. ** I'm being generous to Harris here by assuming a +3 or +4 win for her in the popular would be enough for her to win the EC. Now of those 13 most recent national polls, remove the two biggest outliers for each candidate. Now 9 out of 9 polls show a Trump victory scenario. The only way Trump would lose is if all of these polls are overstating his support, which is a tough sell given what we're seeing in the early voting data.
I will predict that if Trump was to win a state that is generally considered a safe bet for Harris as of now, it would be Virginia over Minnesota. A high turn-out in southern Virginia gives Trump a puncher's chance there. There aren't enough rural GOP voters in Minnesota to overcome the Minneapolis/St. Paul Dems plus the Walz factor.
Like I said above, this is about perception that he’s dominating so much that he could win it, and trying to throw a bone to Hung Cao, who conservatives love (guy has a great personal story). No shock at all. Maybe trying to get Harris to waste some time and money here as well. But we are not a relevant state this year. Harris should win it, and if by some chance it’s close enough that this visit matters, the race will already be a blowout for him. VA is about 6 points left of national polls in the last few cycles so there really isn’t a scenario where he wins VA and loses PA MI and WI. And almost zero chance he loses NC or GA either if he wins here. But it’s just the fun of the last week or two of a competitive race - head fakes, panic, exuberance, ulterior motives, 3D chess by the campaigns etc.
I really do not think VA is in play. I think the Trump team may be a little overconfident at this point and they think this looks good for their campaign.
By the way, not that anyone really thought otherwise, but this guy knows VA politics as well as anyone out there.
Another state Trump may want to look at is New Hampshire. Long odds, but it's doable. October 2024 New Hampshire Poll: Harris 50%, Trump 47% - Emerson Polling
