Trump vs. Harris - Please put all new polls here.

Felt this way in 2016 and also the 2nd baby Bush election. Don't underestimate the U.S. voting population's ability to go full stupid.

 

Trump very well could win the election, that part I never denied, but this was in regards to the popular vote in which he has absolutely no shot at winning.

 

Youngkin won because Terry McAuliffe ran a bad campaign. In fact, it was so bad that he managed to take down every other Democratic candidate running for a statewide office with him. Although I don't recall any data regarding turnout I also suspect that Democratic turnout was lower than Republican turnout probably because the Dems were overconfident based on the presidential election the prior year and were so sure that McAuliffe would be elected that a number of them didn't bother to vote.

 

Biden beat Trump by 10 points here in 2020. He outpaced his national average here by 6 points. Little chance the state has swung 9 points in one cycle or that Trump has a five point national lead as of today
If it any of that comes to pass, election day is gonna be awfully anticlimactic. It wouldn’t surprise me though to see trump throw a rally or two in, his supporters go ape poop when he acts like he’s gonna win everywhere. They crave that feeling of invincibility from him.

 

AZ getting redder

 

Just because someone in Arizona registers R doesn't mean they vote party ticket. I remind you again, since 2016, Arizona has voted for a D Senator three times, and 2022, Ds won all top offices except Secretary of Education.

Much of it because many Rs, especially Mormons, can't stand Trump and his sycophants. To them, civility and basic human decency matter. They didn't vote Trump in huge numbers in 2020, and didn't vote Lake or Masters in 2022. And there are over 500,000 LDS residents in Arizona. To illustrate the point, Romney won Arizona in 2012 by over 9 points. Trump in 2016 by only 3.5, and then Biden by. 5 in 2020.

There's also a large Independent voter population in Arizona. Nearly 40%. Often helps negate the R edge in the state.

 

All I said was is Arizona is getting redder. Which it is. Same thing happened to Florida. North Carolina is becoming more like Florida.

 

I recall it was more that Youngkin ran a great campaign for a Republican in VA. He did a great job appealing to the suburban women in Northern VA while still being able to get Trump level turn out in the rural areas of VA. Terry did not run a good campaign. He is a Bill Clinton Democrat and is pretty centrist. His attempt to run as a progressive Democrat came off as inauthentic. Additionally he was breaking the understanding that you only serve one term as Governor in VA. The combination of factors allowed Youngkin to win. I am not seeing/feeling the same things this year for Trump.

 

As I recall, Youngkin leaned hard into the manufactured anti-CRT stuff and road the wave of “Mom’s for Liberty” - which at the time also led to wave of those people getting school board seats in VA suburbs (as well as nationally). I guess you can call it “good politics” in the sense it got him across the line. But the reality is he was leveraging demagoguery and preying on people’s fears. Liberty was an attractive term coming out of COVID, in the end what did that organization mostly become associated with? Library book purges and harassing trans kids. The antithesis of liberty.

 

I’d rather have Kamala win simply because I can’t stand that whinny little bitch Trump. But like you, I won’t lose any sleep over the outcome. One thing is certain. I will continue to enjoy my life no matter who is in the WH. And I’ll make more money the next 4 years than the previous 4. Just like the previous 4, and the previous 4.

Unless you are in politics, your success and well being has much more to do with you than who’s president. Which is why I care less every election cycle.

 

I think the idea of massive tariffs and deportations casts grave doubts on your “doesn’t matter, economy would do fine regardless” hypothesis.

Trumps far leftist policies, if enacted, would very likely bring back high inflation if not going beyond the 8 or 9% we peaked at in 2022. It could potentiality bring about a financial crisis. I’m sure everyone would stay calm during a crisis with Trump as President.

 

So far in the EV, the gender gap in favor of women is at or exceeding 2022 so the Dobbs effect still appears to be in play.

 

I’m not saying ‘the economy’ will do fine. I’m saying I’ll be fine.

 

Real Clear Politics now has Trump winning the national popular vote by +0.1 points.

2024 National: Trump vs. Harris | RealClearPolling

 

Seeing as Youngkin has a 57% approval rating, maybe McAuliffe ran a bad campaign and should not have had the head of the teacher's union on stage with him at his final rally when school closures were such a big issue in VA.

 

About 25% of the votes have already been cast.

Republicans are getting significantl6 more first-time and low propensity voters than the Democrats. Great to get those votes in the bank early. Per Rich Baris and Robert Barnes

Barnesy wanted to leverage his Amos Miller case to get 60,000 Amish registered to vote.Looks like ~20l0k Amish are now registered, up about 150,000 from 2020. Bad move for Shapiro and the Democrats to have gone after small Amish organic farmers.

All roads lead to Barnes

 

Definitely an outlier. The recent WaPo poll with a 3.5% MOE has Harris leading by 6%. As stated in another post that poll with a one percent lead by Harris was commissioned by a pro-Trump organization.

 

Quantus is another pollster on the list of the 27 republican aligned pollsters "flooding the zone" ...

 

That seems much more likely. I remember what it was like around Northern VA in '21 when Youngkin was running. It is not like that for this race.

 

If I recall early on McAuliffe had a sizable lead in the polls. By the election Youngkin was either ahead or the polls were within the margin of error. The turning point was when McAuliffe made his statement to the effect that parents shouldn't tell schools what to teach. Following McAuliffe's faux pas the Youngkin campaign flooded the airways with ads showing McAuliffe making that statement.