Trump vs. Harris - Please put all new polls here.

Felt this way in 2016 and also the 2nd baby Bush election. Don't underestimate the U.S. voting population's ability to go full stupid.

 

Trump very well could win the election, that part I never denied, but this was in regards to the popular vote in which he has absolutely no shot at winning.

 

Youngkin won because Terry McAuliffe ran a bad campaign. In fact, it was so bad that he managed to take down every other Democratic candidate running for a statewide office with him. Although I don't recall any data regarding turnout I also suspect that Democratic turnout was lower than Republican turnout probably because the Dems were overconfident based on the presidential election the prior year and were so sure that McAuliffe would be elected that a number of them didn't bother to vote.

 

Biden beat Trump by 10 points here in 2020. He outpaced his national average here by 6 points. Little chance the state has swung 9 points in one cycle or that Trump has a five point national lead as of today
If it any of that comes to pass, election day is gonna be awfully anticlimactic. It wouldn’t surprise me though to see trump throw a rally or two in, his supporters go ape poop when he acts like he’s gonna win everywhere. They crave that feeling of invincibility from him.

 

AZ getting redder

 

Just because someone in Arizona registers R doesn't mean they vote party ticket. I remind you again, since 2016, Arizona has voted for a D Senator three times, and 2022, Ds won all top offices except Secretary of Education.

Much of it because many Rs, especially Mormons, can't stand Trump and his sycophants. To them, civility and basic human decency matter. They didn't vote Trump in huge numbers in 2020, and didn't vote Lake or Masters in 2022. And there are over 500,000 LDS residents in Arizona. To illustrate the point, Romney won Arizona in 2012 by over 9 points. Trump in 2016 by only 3.5, and then Biden by. 5 in 2020.

There's also a large Independent voter population in Arizona. Nearly 40%. Often helps negate the R edge in the state.

 

All I said was is Arizona is getting redder. Which it is. Same thing happened to Florida. North Carolina is becoming more like Florida.