The first votes have been cast in the election

Matt Bevins, Jr. continues to hang his hat on returned vs. requested while his graphics show the Dems EV total outpacing GOP everyday.

Coming out of a pandemic and a coup attempt, there is no prior election similar baseline for comparison.

Regarding the Georgia EV, the voters there are heavily female and/or African-American FWIW.

 

If you were asking me, I think it's implausible that GOP voters all became early voters in one election cycle. There's been a minor shift, but like that data in Georgia shows, only 6% of people who voted on Election Day in 2020 have voted there as of today. That tells me the early vote shift for GOP voters isn't large enough to explain the numbers we are seeing.

 

Because Dems in NC have a slim registration advantage overall and Dems are known to dominate early voting. I don't think Republicans are now all the sudden the "Party of Early Voting". GOP have made some strides, yes, but based on these numbers, she loses NC by 3 or 4 points (at least) in the final count.

 

Okay, I see your point about early voting a little better now.

 

Early voting in Arizona has a baseline. But in most states, we're looking at mass early voting for 2020, during the height of the pandemic. Can't use that as a baseline.

There are also anecdotal evidence of PA door knockers running into voters who are waiting to vote on election day this time. They don't want a count repeat of 2020.

 

GOP are destroying Dems in Nevada. EV 2 to 1.

 

As of earlier today, Clark County was only 10% of the returns. Orange fat Cinderfella turns back into a pumpkin after all the Clark votes are recorded.

 

Worth reading on early vote in NV.

The early voting blog, 2024 - The Nevada Independent

 

I voted yesterday. Straight ticket Dem. Voted against retaining every judge or justice appointed by DeSantis. Voted for retaining all the others. Yes on 3 and 4. No on all the others.

 

Wouldn't Harris have deployed her alleged ground game in Nevada by now? If no, then what are they waiting for? Same question for the machine. T-minus 10 days and counting....

 

You guys focused on the timing of when people vote is ignorance to the tenth power. The Democrats lost plenty of states where they won the early vote in 2020 because WHEN you vote doesn’t matter.

What you need to focus on is the states where you have to request mail ballots and the percent that are being returned. Those states look like normal.

Pennsylvania:

 

Who are the DeSantis judges?

 

Robert J. Luck

Florida Supreme Court

January 14, 2019 - November 19, 2019

Barbara Lagoa

Florida Supreme Court

January 9, 2019 - December 6, 2019

John Daniel Couriel

Florida Supreme Court

June 1, 2020 - Present

Renatha Francis

Florida Supreme Court


Renatha Francis

Florida Supreme Court

September 1, 2022 - Present

Carlos Muñiz

Florida Supreme Court

January 22, 2019 - Present

Meredith Sasso

Florida Supreme Court

May 23, 2023 - Present

Jamie Rutland Grosshans

Florida Supreme Court

September 14, 2020 - Present



https://ballotpedia.org/Judges_appointed_by_Ron_DeSantis

 

I walked in my absentee ballot to the Supervisor of Elections office, but otherwise voted exactly as you did. I even researched the school board candidates to identify the likely Dems.

 

I voted against all of Shorty Mussolini's judges too, but won't he just get to replace them with people equally as awful?

 

You don't think campaigns would prefer to have their voters bank their vote early and know it, to allow them the time and money to focus on the ones that have not voted yet?

 

I think a lot of Dems are having buyer's remorse with Kamala. In a hypothetical 2024 Dem primary, she probably doesn’t make the top 5. Dems wanted Joe out, but for some reason, a lot of Dems (as evidenced by posters here) assumed he would be replaced with a Michelle Obama or a Gavin Newsom type candidate. Kamala was forced upon them and if she had turned out to be a viable candidate, all would have surely been forgiven. But now that they see she’s clearly not up to the task, they’re jaded and staying home this election cycle.

P.S. terrible news for Dems as it relates to Senate control

 

Republicans are "destroying" the Dems in Nevada only because they have a small lead while in the past the Democrats have had a significant lead at this point in the cycle. In terms of actual numbers the returns are still very close. Not good news for the Democrats but not nearly as disastrous as you apparently believe.