Trump vs. Harris - Please put all new polls here.

I can't believe CNN and the NY Times have joined the MAGA conspiracy and are showing the popular vote tied. CNN even has GOP +3 in the generic congressional vote. Down with the MSM and their grand conspiratorial ways!!

 

Pick a battleground state, pick a poll. You'll have a really hard time finding more than 1 or 2 that show indies breaking towards Harris. Everyone I've seen has Trump winning indies.

 

CNN used a +4 R sample which is very strange. It's almost like all of the pollsters got burned in 2020 that they are trying to overcompensate. If we're getting ties with R leaning samples then Harris continues to remain in good shape

 

NYT/SIENA is Trump +1 on full ballot.

 

Get back to me after November 5th. The polls and betting markets are all going to be proven to be way off. You really think Trump, who is hugely unpopular and has been his entire political career, all of a sudden had a magical spike in popularity out of nowhere? After January 6th and all the batshit rhetoric he’s spewed the last four years and being the oldest presidential candidate in history? It’s not going to happen, use common sense my friend.

 

There is a belief that one way or another, polls are going to be off in one direction or the other that one of the candidates is more likely to win all the swing states rather than the two split them. This is based on past polling misses like 2012, which underestimated Obama, and 2016/2020 which underestimated Trump. In 2022, polls underestimated D support again.

Not sure which way things break this time around, but there is a theory, and I stress it's just a theory, that polls were twice burned by underestimating Trump support that this time around, they are doing everything to correct it, and may be over-compensating? Again, just a theory. We'll know soon enough.

 

So now democrats don’t want to believe even NYT poll??
Again you are rather disconnected from reality.

Kamala received 0 votes in 2020 and was installed on 2024. She was the most unpopular VP ever.

The more interviews she does, the worse her polling has gotten over the past 30 days.

 

Interesting how Trump doesn’t get held to the same standard because pretty much every interview he’s done has been worse than Harris since she entered the race, but I know we have to grade him on a curve for some reason. The polls have been hard to take seriously ever since they were proven to be way off in both 2012 and 2016. Trump is not going to win the popular vote, zero percent chance it happens - his platform and likability as an individual have always been unpopular with the majority of Americans, and that was before 2020 when he went fully unhinged after he lost the election. As usual he’ll have to depend on the EC to get elected.

 

Or CNN poll that dropped today...

 

Polls in which the sampling began October 20th or later with the most recent listed first.

 

That poll shifted from a D+1 sample last time to a R+4 one to produce that tie. The devil is in the details.

 

If she's so unpopular, why is she pulling in 20K a rally while Trump pulls in 4K or less?

 

lmao yaa you realize we have eyes and can see he gets way more? He got more than 4k in the Bronx!

Geesh why do you all lie so much... it's just not helpful.

Anyhow Ill give Harris credit, she at least only talks for about 20 mins (mostly because she couldn't do more I'm sure). Trump talks waaaay too long. I dont get why people go to these no matter the party or candidate.

 

Do you really want to go down the we’ve got the biggest / best crowds rabbit hole?

 

Since you are already resigned to a Trump victory, you're allowed to say that she sucks.

 

I’ll have to check the cross tabs later as it’s never as simple as D + this or R + that.

So is the left now going to say NYT is no longer trusted as the best pollster?

The methodology must suck now huh

Trying to keep up here. lol

 

All of the press wants it to be a tie until Election Day. Save for whatever Trump does to overturn the results until necessary, no one will be paying attention to national issues for awhile after Election Day.

 

My god the level of delusion... ok man good luck with that.

By the way, RCP aggeragte's last 2 GEs were over both times in favor of the Democrat. The left complained about rightwing pollsters both times, but I'm sure this time is different.

 

The only delusion is thinking Trump, a historically unpopular candidate who has never come close to winning a popular vote, is all of a sudden going to win this year in a year where there will be a record number of young voters, who are going to assuredly break for Harris by a significant amount, and where there are less boomers that will vote for Trump after all the Covid deaths that inflicted the elderly in 2020.

Look at the trends from prior elections in regards to popular vote and you’ll know it’s foolish to think he will come close on the popular vote - ESPECIALLY after all the craziness that has followed him for the worse since the 2020 election. He may win, but it will be an EC victory - he has NO shot at winning the popular vote. Literally 3 weeks ago the majority of betting markets and polls had Harris as the slight favorite - do you really think all of a sudden all these voters just decided to say f it and vote for Trump? Don’t be a fool, there is significant manipulation going on so the right can claim voter fraud when he loses.

 

Everything is being rigged for this election by Trumper CEOs or CEOs afraid of what Trump might do if he wins. This election is without precedent.