Trump vs. Harris - Please put all new polls here.

I’ll be interested to see how the actual EC bias shakes out, given these small hints that the Republican advantage might be waning.

As for Trump’s ability to win despite losing the popular vote, I think this is more of a structural outcome based on demographics than anything either candidate is doing. Since the states vote all-or-none, and the more lopsided states go Democratic, the Republican will almost automatically enjoy this advantage. If Trump gets more votes in California, New York, Texas, or Florida, this would erode his EC advantage. Meanwhile, if Harris lost votes in those states, she would eat into his advantage. In this way, the EC advantage is a bit perverse.

 

The sad state of polling

 

Trump appears to be behind by 3 in Virginia but hope springs eternal

 

When you say 120 polls what are you referring to?

If we are trying to determine who the best

They were more accurate on every poll that mattered minus Georgia. That was the only one. You can try to spin it, doesn't change the facts. Also, check on 2016 as well. They did very well in 2016, especially compared to NYT. You keep mentioning who picked what right or wrong but fail to see how this comes down to MoE. If you cant understand that basic part of polling, I am wasting my time with you.

If NYT misses outside MoE often and we are in a race in which NYT is tighter than they have been in the past 2 presidential cycles, what does that mean for Harris?

 

Trump has zero chance at winning Virginia.

 

I’ll try to make it clear. Yes, I think a poll that predicts Republicans to win almost every contest and has a high MOE is worse than a poll that has a slightly higher margin of error, but errors on BOTH SIDES, and averages out to be fairly accurate long term. One is inaccurate… the other is inaccurate and bias.

I mean, you already pointed out that the difference between the two polls in how much they miss by is often just a couple of tenths of a point, but one poll was 6 for 6 on predicting the winner, and the other was 1 for 6…

If you can’t understand this, then I’m wasting my time with you.

 

Here we go, some 538 analysis ... in 2022 NTY had the lowest average error of 1.9% (tied) and a bias of 0.0%, and called 88% of races correct ...

Trafalgar had an average error of 5.3% and a republican bias of 4.9%, and called 62% of races correct ...

That's why Trafalgar sucks and NYTs in their #1 pollster this cycle.

This is what happens when you look at more than 6 cherry picked polls ...

 

You might be right. Years ago on Fox's The Five Democrat operative Bob Beckel RIP gave the game away for VirginIa.

As the story goes, Beckel was h8gh on pain medication and he was discussing a senat3 race between Republican Ed Gillespie and Democrat Mark Warner. It was an extremely close race but the high as a kite Beckel told Democrats not to worry because Fairfax would just print out whatever ballots were needed for the Warner to win.

Final tally:
Warner: 1,073,667
Gillespie: 1,055,940

 

Yeah once you research polymarket you realize it isn't indicative of anything, really. Not saying Trump or Harris will win, just that polymarket offers no value to determine that.

 

If Miami-Dade mail-in/EV is red, she ain’t winning and I realize Florida is not even in play for her. Miami-Dade translates to what’s going to happen in other areas of the country. Last time Dade went red, Ron DeSantis won by 20 points. Bye bye, Kamala!

 

Marist Poll: Harris leads with those who have already voted in AZ, NC ,GA

AZ: Harris 56 % Trump 44 %
NC: Harris 55 % Trump 43 %
GA: Harris 55 % Trump 45 %



Marist Poll: Harris leads with those who have already voted in AZ, NC ,GA

 

Her goose. It’s cooked.

 

Is there a reason you didn't post the response rate and totals?

 

Trump should take Florida by 11%+.. I think Rich Baris had Trump ahead by 13.8% a few days ago.

Duval County is swinging towards Trump compared to 2020. Duval is a great predictor for how Georgia will play out.

Do more research

 

As expected

 

Jon Ralston is a Democrat-leaning legendary Nevada political forecaster

 

As expected