Trump vs. Harris - Please put all new polls here.

Why the joke that is 538 (owned by ABC) fired Rasmussen. Note where Rasmussen ranks for accuracy in 2020 compared to ABC/WaPo

 

Didn't NYTimes/Sienna have Biden +6 with their last poll for PA in 2020? Biden ended up winning it by 1.2%. That is a rather large error.

You keep talking "Republican aligned", yet each one of those has performed better than every single one of your so-called "non-partisan" polls in the last 4 cycles.

 

The hand wringing and panic by the Dems is hilarious to me. It’s like they look for reasons to think they will lose. He cited NV, even Ralston’s projections as of today don’t have it over a one point race for the pubs, and that’s 13 days out in a tied state poll wise, and that’s why it will be over early and where they should panic? Maybe the doomsayers will be proven right as time goes on, 50/50 shot. But they are some seriously skittish folks.

 

These comparisons to 2020 ignore that 2022 they all missed the other way. There’s no way to know which way the polls are off.

 

That’s not true overall. 538 rates pollsters by their accuracy and Trafalgar is one of the worst. Ranked nearly dead last out of 100s of pollsters. The few times you can point to the them and say “they were the closest” are offset by the 100s of times they were way off…

Also, I can throw your argument back in your face… Didn’t Rasmussen, Trafalgar, and Insider Advantage have Trump winning Penn in 2020 in their final polls? How’d that work out for you?

 

Trafalgar is really accurate in Arizona! Just ask Senator Masters, which Trafalgar had winning by 1.5%, and Governor Lake, which Trafalgar had up by 3.6% in 2022!

 

538 is a garbage site.

How are you off by 6 points on a poll and considered the number 1 pollster?

How about we look at real world results and not some BS website that ranks pollsters on god who knows what?



The results speak for themselves.

538 says Trafalgar is not a good poll yet they were the second most accurate in 2020...

538 current top 2 were off by 5.5 in the GE in 2020.

 

New WSJ poll dropped tonight. Trump +3 nationally. Damn.

 

On your spreadsheet Trafalgar has the second LOWEST percent of races called correctly. Only second to insider advantage, another trash Republican pollster. Is that the point you were trying to make? If so, thanks.

Perhaps they were closer on the states that want to Trump, but Trafalgar picked Pennsylvania +2, Georgia +5, Michigan +2, Nevada +1, and Arizona +2 to go to Trump. They were wrong in almost all the states that mattered.

The results speak for themselves.

 

RCP is about to flip the popular vote to Trump. It’s +0.2 Harris as I type this. She’s about to get steamrolled.

 

I'm not sure which state they are referring to in that video, but if things continue the way they are Harris will carry Pennsylvania and Michigan. The numbers there are good for Dem turnout so far. Honestly we need more data before anyone decides to panic

 

I really am fascinated by how polls get put together. the WSJ had a big national poll (1500LV) that now has Trump up 3. Their last poll had Harris up 1 in August. Probably be big news tomorrow.
The entire difference is attributable to these 2 cross tabs:

They have a dem pollster and a pub pollster putting this together so clearly a bipartisan decision was made to go with this.
But did they do this because of how early voting is going? If so it’s going to change every day basically. Did they think they missed the mark on the last poll and compensated? Or did they just consider it an acceptable diff? Crazy how such small things can be the difference.

 

They are referring to GA, AZ, NV, NC, and PA. The consistent point that they have been making is that Democrats are not hitting the turnout numbers in early voting that they have in the past. Democrats strategy has always been to bank as many votes early as you can. Democrats are not banking the same number of votes in those states as they did in ‘20. But that is just as of today. Still another 10 days-ish to run the numbers up with late early voting that @AzCatFan mentioned.

 

We know all about polling errors....

 

https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/trump-leads-harris-wsj-poll-779f8516?mod=mhp

I think this is game set match. The key is looking at the significantly growing Harris unfavorable rate. Kills me what a short memory voters have - they now have positive approval rating on Trump.

 

Yep. Considerably higher now than both 2016 and 2020. You can attribute a lot of that to the circus indictments, assassination attempts and his being vindicated on the border, among other things.

 

Might this be that all that data is based on just one result, the general election of 2020?

 

NY Times for Biden in 2020 - Pennsylvania +6, Georgia Tie, Michigan +8, Nevada +6, Arizona + 6

Oh, and I love how you left out Wisconsin which NYT has Biden + 11 while Trafalgar had Biden +1.


So let's see who was closer for each state.

Pennsylvania - Trafalgar off by 3.2 / NYT off by 4.8

Georgia - Trafalgar off by 5.3 / NYT off by .3

Michigan - Trafalgar off by 4.8 / NYT off by 5.2

Nevada - Trafalgar off by 3.4 / NYT off by 3.6

Arizona - Trafalgar off by 3.3 / NYT off by 5.7

Wisconsin - Trafalgar off by .3 / NYT off by 10.3

So Trafalgar was more accurate in every state minus Georgia yet NYT is considered the best pollster by 528. Both had a state where they were very off.

The results speak for themselves.