Trump vs. Harris - Please put all new polls here.

There are a grand total of zero Harris “supporters” who have changed their mind. I do know some younger kids—young white males-who feel that Trump gives them a better opportunity (even if they can’t articulate why). I think Trump’s constant campaign of fear porn' with no actual discernible message of policy or plan, was very effective. We’ll see in 2 weeks of that was enough to turn the election.

 

I’m hoping the fake polls have the opposite effect—they rally the lazy to get off their butt and make it to the polls. Every vote will truly make a difference in the swing states. Every single vote.

 

Any bet can be a good one if the price is low enough. I personally wouldn’t be too surprised to see Harris win, so a bet that pays 2 to 1 doesn’t seem too crazy to me. The direction of polling bias is the key, and while many think this bias is favoring Harris, it could conceivably be favoring Trump. Once you are ready to accept that 1/3 of the bettors are in denial, it isn’t much of a jump to accept that 2/3 might be.

 

Bet it. It’s easy money. How many times are u gonna say it’s sht until u actually take advantage of it?
When uf flipped to a 2 pt dog last weekend I bet it. It’s not that complicated. U very well may be right, but stop giving reasons and make some money on it.

 

If you want him to wager so badly then bet him yourself and give him the same odds that polymarket would.

 

lol If the “winner” is a .35 dog u bet it all day. I’m not sure who wins, but if I was so sure the 3/1 dog was gonna win I’d stop preaching that it’s BS and just take advantage of it.

 

It is actually a 3 to 1 bet on Polymarket right now if you bet on a Harris win. You bet $1,000 you are going to get close to $3,000 back. You should jump all over that, especially since it's even better than what you thought it was. I will be the first person here to congratulate you on your winnings.

 

New name…again….again.

 

It’s just timing. If republicans are voting early then their “firewall” doesn’t need to be as big. Surely you understand that.

 

I’m not confident she is going to win at all. But I do feel confident the betting odds are being intentionally manipulated by one massive bettor. I think it’s a toss up and polymarket is full of shit as it pertains to being predictive of the outcome.

 

Did Atlas ever come out and say why they had 33% of the black vote going to Trump? As if anyone sane believes that. Yet you have the media falling for it and crying doom and gloom

 

You can bet on it over there. But here in the US it’s still not legal.

 

This response confuses me, Okee. Either you are confusing me with another poster, or I have thus far done a terrible job expressing my views. I’m the guy who thinks that markets excel at pricing goods, so I’m not going to bet against them. On the other hand, you seem to think that Trump is undervalued at 66%, so it seems you are the one that should be jumping on the bet.

 

It's the bolded. Not only that, because you're doing a terrible job expressing my views. I believe 66% odds of Trump winning is about right with the data that we have. A lot of that data is within the margin of error, so there exists about a 1 in 3 chance (based on the data we have) that she wins. Polling and early voting support where the market is at right now. And to your point earlier, I was probably incorrect to say 33% of bettors are in denial. They are playing the odds based on the available data like everyone else.

I also suppose (not unlike myself) there are a segment of the bettors speculating about future data and events. i.e. the perception that she is a severely flawed candidate and her numbers will continue to degrade as they have over the past month.

 

I’ll take 50/50 odds if u or anyone is interested.

 

Well, it’s difficult for me to square your first statement that I am entirely responsible for the misunderstanding and your later admission that you misspoke regarding the rationality of those betting on Harris, but I’m not interested in fighting over it.

My stance is the same as it was above: Trump should be considered the favorite, but we should also acknowledge that favorites don’t always win. I’m mostly interested in the challenges of accurately predicting future outcomes. My preferred candidate seems to have worse odds than Michelle Obama, so my dog isn’t even in this fight.

 

What is that from?

 

I'm not sure it is. The biggest question about the Trump Campaign in this election is about whether or not their outsourced GOTV efforts are actually working or not. And if they are going to be able to turn out a large number of low propensity voters on election day because they have the time and resources to find them and get them to the polls because they have already gotten their high propensity voters to the polls. I think that is the biggest known unknown we have right now.