It's dumb. Perhaps you agree. For example, Trump went to Coachella, but immigration consistently rates as a larger issue for voters than abortion in states like AZ and NV, where Trump has some reach from Coachella. Also, AZ and NV are two battlegrounds, whereas there isn't a battleground in sight anywhere near Texas. If anything, it'll just remind TX voters to vote for Cruz, because they're pissed at her about immigration. She is not going to flip any abortion voters in battleground states this late in the game that weren't already voting for her to begin with. Dumpster fire campaign.
It's up to 66% odds of a Trump win on Polymarket now. Trump is running away in the polling and the EV numbers look very good for the GOP. If early voting numbers didn't look so promising for the GOP, I think it'd be closer to 60% odds for Trump at this point based on polling alone, but Dems are likely missing their "firewall" target of +500,000 mail in votes in PA by a lot and PA is the centerpiece. They may not even maintain a +400,000 firewall in PA. From a gambling standpoint, you'd have to be nuts to put any hard-earned money on the line for a Harris win. So I'd say a lot of her 34% odds are coming from people that are in total denial about the race. There isn't any data out there that looks good for Harris.
If that stays the same through election day, D’s would have a 300k fire wall going into Election Day. They had a 1.2M-ish lead in ‘20.
I still think it's a case of cannibalizing their election day vote by voting early. In 2020 Trump strongly discouraged his supporters from voting early. This time around they are being encouraged to do so.
Early NPAs vote dem there around 70-30 from what I’ve read, so there are at like 390k, which is close to their low end 400k number. 500k probably more reasonable, but who knows. Maybe they get there, maybe they don’t, but again comparing this election to 2020 isn’t that meaningful. The demographics and numbers on how many and who will vote early is very different. There will be a closer split leading into Election Day and a closer split among Election Day voters. I don’t think anyone will truly know what a good firewall is until we get closer and see how much of the ED vote was cannibilized on both sides. Side note, there was some Dem panic last night in Nevada over the numbers there, then a good batch came in late in the evening for the Dems. It’s still not great but they are only 2 days in…the back and forth early in the cycle like this is really just for nerds like us. Next week late will be a much better judge. Jmo.
I wonder how many votes that D's were planning to bank early, not how many they wanted as a fire wall. If they are not turning out the number of voters they were planning, that could be telling. I have not had a chance to look at total early voters in '16 vs '20 vs '24. According to Jon Ralston, Republicans are up about 6k or 2% in total early voting. As he says, it is still too early to say one way or the other but Democrats need to run up voting in Clark County to build a firewall for Election Day. The early voting blog, 2024 - The Nevada Independent
Good question on what the Dems expected, would be a better marker. Not sure we will ever know. But all that really matters is how many have voted when the polls close on Nov 5. I know for me, I voted mail in in 2020, but now really want the experience of watching my vote get counted. Wonder how many other people feel similarly among the previous mail in voters.
That is sound reasoning but there is a chance some of these polls are not weighing Dems as much as they used to. The early vote data is very bad for dems as well.
Yep. I am trying not to be overly optimistic. A lot of these polls are within the margin of error, so you never know. I think too many Democrats would've preferred to have had more options (i.e. a primary) and they don't feel right about how the administration attempted to cover up Biden's cognitive decline. Likely a lot of independents who feel the same way. Plus all of the other issues that Trump clearly polls better on.
Hard to understand what your vision for America is with your obsession about Trump's polling numbers. Seems like you have lots of free time on your hands, friend.
I looked at RCP today and about 1/2 of the polls they are using now in their averages are known right bias polls in the swing states causing the "flips" there. This is what Nate Silver talked about with "flooding the zone". I doubt a significant number of Harris supporters changed their minds at the last minute...
They didn’t. You don’t go from an even race to Trump all of a sudden being the heavy favorite in a span of a few weeks this close to the election without some major poll and market manipulation going on. Scare tactics by the right to make it seem like he’s winning by so much the left doesn’t go out and vote, but it won’t work.
