**Buzz Buzz Buzz** - Nappier's (ahem) Golden Ticket

Amen and lived that life for 15 plus years from 1990-2010. All the while having instate rivals in the same range as well as ut

I hope to see us recapture that at some point

 

Kentucky beat Ole Miss, no? That is where they are at right now. Vandy is in that range as well actually and beat Bama. We were there last year and beat Tennessee.

Mediocre teams beat ranked teams all the time. They just lose a lot more than they win. They are still expected to win some. You do realize a 20% win probability means you are actually expected to win 1 in 5 games right?

 

Well that's a tall order and Napier has shown he can't handle the heat of a real game and makes too many mistakes for a guy earning the amount of money he earns. His 2025 class is falling apart too. He might have to buy about 40 players from the portal at this rate. He has yet to win on the road against ranked teams and LSU is the worst place to play especially at night. Laugh, but FSU might still beat us.

 

Fair questions. If I can add...
There is no doubt we have played some tough teams.
And even our easy teams such as UCF, UK and Miss state has either beaten a decent team or been close to beating a top 10 team.

IMO if we get to the end of the season and win 3 more (LSU, OM and FSU) thats 7-5.
With the 5 losses to playoff teams. (For the sake of discussion.)

So IMO that's 0-5 vs the top 12. (UGA, TX, TAmU, miami, Tenn.)
But 2-0 vs 13-25. (I assume OM and LSU will be top 25.)

While that's not great and below our standard, I hope we can also agree that no one in Florida history has had to play 5 top 12 opponents. (I don't think.)

 

That is the problem with predictive stats great for gambling and actuary work in a vacuum. Doesnt do much as a dynamic situation changes.

Great call about vandy winning vs bama they have 3 more against current top 8, though they never play more than 2 back to back and wont during the rest of the season

 

We play LSU home this year

 

7-5 is where I think the keeping discussion becomes more reasonable. That puts us in the 25-30th team discussion. Personally I think we should be better than that in Y3 but I concede that’s a legit argument. If you swap a LSU win for UGA it’s even stronger.

Problem is he’s 0-3 vs ranked so far. Yes the upcoming slate is really tough…but he has to overcome that 0-3 at some point.

 

Says who? You?

 

Says anyone who cares about the success of the program. If you don’t expect at least 25th in the nation at UF in year 3 in the era of NIL then you aren’t serious about future success.

 

A (contrived) 20% win probability also doesn't mean that the team would go 1-4 in a five game stretch. It's not like we're playing 1000 games. Even if the "win probabilities" were valid, which is questionable, all kinds of stuff can happen with the small sample size of a football season. I don't find these tortured stats particularly helpful for evaluating anything.

 

Top 20 ? Which ones are ranked that low

 

Now that we have beaten someone soundly we are kind of counting our chickens before hatching. Just for perspective, USCe beat UK as soundly, and then did that to OU as well, who was ranked at some point. They narrowly lost to LSU and Bama (maybe should have won one of them as we should have with Tenn) and have to face Vandy and Missouri as well as aTm. I could predict that they beat Vandy and Missouri while losing to aTm and probably Clemson. Their schedule is pretty similar to ours and have had the same ups and downs with our downs being worse. Would we really want Beamer as our coach long term with the results he has had, and we have had worse previous years with CBN than a lot of Beamers years with the Cocks? If not, why would we want CBN just because he faced a tough schedule and faced some teams at the right time in the season or during a down time? That there is more parity that some of these slip ups can happen is all the more reason for us to have an exceptional x's and o's coach, and I am not seeing that.

 

Exactly he is so far off in La La Land and full of shit

 

Great post

 

If you don’t think the probabilities are close to accurate then you should make a killing gambling

Yes the sample size over the next 4 games is small, but it’s been 3 years. Sample size is growing.

We went 1-5 vs ranked in 2022, 1-5 in 2023, and 0-3 so far this year. At some point he has to win, no?

If he had some wins under his belt then 0-4 in the next stretch would be more acceptable.

 

La La Land = Expecting the flagship University in the state of Florida to be at least in the top 25 of football programs once every three years

 

His wife will probably tell him what the reality is

 

Sure, at some point he has to win. I don't have an issue with that characterization I just don't think the tortured stats are particularly helpful in getting there.

 

Ruhrow, now you done brought politics into it and we're going to Too Hot. Pete Townshend wrote Won't Fooled Again about it doesn't matter which party gets elected, nothing changes

 

That's some of y'alls coach...