**Buzz Buzz Buzz** - How did we get here?

Massively downgrade our wins. Massively pump up our losses. Massively downgrade our coming gauntlet as "Top 20".

An answer searching for evidence.

 

I think Tilly and I and distant are in sync.
I am fine with fully supporting Napier but he has to do the following imo:
Go 7-5 minimum and play compettiive against uga and tx. I think he needs to beat ole miss, lsu, and fsu. The other requirement is the recruiting has to really pick up which it should naturally do I assume with 3 more wins and playing well against uga and tx. Hell I say run the table and get in playoff. I have my doubts of course but let's root for it. Go Gators.

 

OMG OMG OMG!

 

Teams 1-8 would on average be a 8 point favorite over teams 15-22.

You selected 8 teams so I went that way both directions. Illinois and Pitt drives that down. Ignoring them it would be a 5 point favorite on a neutral field.

An 8 point favorite is about 25% chance at winning.

So a 20th ranked team should go 2-6 if they play all top 8 teams.

Of course we aren’t playing only top 8 teams.

So if we go 1-7 then we underperform what the 20th ranked team should perform

 

Bad guess.

 

Nah, I think some sports bring out different personalities. Thankfully the worst of those 500 don't participate in the other boards then.

 

Oh, yea, and i'm pissed about the current state of Florida soccer!!! It has to get better!

 

Putting you on ignore now. Nothing but anti-Gator drivel comes out of your posts. Bye bye.

 

Agree with the big picture, but think you're being generous. Things hopefully improve from here, but as of now we are looking up at Ray Graves, Ron Zook and even the Dickey eras.

 

If Napier beats Georgia and FSU he is a lock to return imo.

 

You are ridiculous we have played or are scheduled to play 5 teams in the top 8 that is 62.5%. Again, ftr #’s 2,4,5,6,8. 20 vs any top 8 isnt expected to win 2 when they play them in a compressed time span.

I didn't pick top 8 arbitrarily that is tightest cluster of teams we have lost to and still have to play and their current rankings. You choose top 20 to make a more damning argument we are bad with out proper context and when refined we look like other teams would if situations were switched.

 

Tilly never meant to say uf was 2-8 i edited the original post to reflect the clarification. I do remember hoping to be ranked top 20 when it mattered and on a lucky season we saw 1 game on a year on tv

 

Im using data.

A team ranked 15-20th using the current polls would be an average 5.5 point underdog to our 7 team ranked slate.

A 5.5 point underdog has a 35% win probability

A team ranked 15-20th would be expected to win about 2.5 games (so 2 or 3) against our 7 ranked opponents.

That is math. I’m not downplaying who we are playing at all. If we go 1-6 then we clearly are not performing at a level expected from a team ranked 15th-20th

 

I’m out!

 

We are also 0-3 vs ranked right now. That counts.

Teams ranked in the 40-50th range would be about a 15 point dog vs our ranked slate and would be expected to have a 10% win chance per game vs our ranked teams.

That roughly translates to 1-6.

So if we go 1-6 we are likely in that 40-50th range.

Yes in Y3 I expect to be at least the 20th best team in the nation. I think that is pretty damn reasonable.

Going 2-5 or 3-4 vs a ranked slate is not crazy and would be expected for a team ranked 20th.

 

And to give Billy credit he’s outperformed in our easy games.

Assuming we beat FSU that’s 4-0 vs the easy teams (non Samford).

On average we should win 75% of the time vs those teams so our expected record should be 3-1. This is based on being an 8 point favorite vs them…which is basically what we’d be vs those teams right now. So he gets kudos for that

If we don’t beat this FSU this all moot anyways

 

So show me a 40-50 ranked team that has gone 1-6 as to prove we are under performing. You cant and also show me a team not ranked at the start of the season heading into week nine having to/played 5 of 8 top teams

You cant, your stats dont support reality of historical accomplishment.