Fortunately he has hired competent engineers and managers to run Tesla and Space X and apparently has become much more obsessed with using the cash hemorrhaging Twitter/X platform to promote his bizarre right-wing propaganda than he is with the actually successful companies.
I do agree that's a concern although one factor to keep in mind with Nevada is the strength of Culinary Workers Union. They're exceptionally good at turning out Democratic voters and under the contracts that they've negotiated with the hotels their members have paid time off to vote on election day. Democrats have outperformed the polls in Nevada in virtually every recent election, just ask "Senator" Adam Laxalt who was ahead in almost every poll in 2022. The Republican candidate for governor was elected based entirely on the Covid shutdown imposed by the then incumbent Democrat governor which devastated the state's tourism based economy.
Ryan seems to be glossing over the high rate of voting by IND low propensity voters. Nevada has an abortion rights initiative on the 2024 ballot which might explain that. The overwhelming majority of voters supporting abortion rights initiatives will not be voting for Trump. That's why the Pubs fought so fiercely to keep those initiatives off of state ballots.
Like said, it’s early. We will see. But the democrats keep bragging about their ground game this year, they need to be micro targeting individual voters to get them out, especially in Arizona and a Nevada. I think the next week or so in a bunch of these states we are gonna see how much of that was real and how much was talk.
Dropped my ballot off today. Not that it matters how I vote in my state due to the idiotic electoral college.
All these predictors are tending to ignore the NPA vote but that is where all the newly registered young voters are going. I believe these will break to Dems by at least 60/40.
Dropped the wife and my ballot in the mail this morning. Daughter is in Tucson at school, but plans on coming up Nov 1 to fill out her ballot and drop it off at a dropbox. She'll be one of the Arizona "late earlies" that gets counted later. But counted nonetheless.
The fact that GOP are winning the early - early vote in so many states is an interesting development. It is a lot easier to get someone to vote if they have several or more days to choose from on the calendar. It seems the GOP finally wholeheartedly embraced early voting and of course, it’s paying off.
Never made sense for Trump to undermine mail-in voting last time. Could have been what tipped the election. I may have missed it but I haven’t heard him decry it this election.
So independents are pretty evenly split in PA. One poll I saw had her up one, one had him up for and another had him up 5. So slight advantage to the Dems here, but it will come down to turnout. Which is why they’re both having rallies there seemingly every ten minutes.
It's been somewhat a reversal in tone, as it relates to mail-in voting and early voting, by the GOP as a whole. Frankly, it was so un-Trump like to decry mail-in voting ever. Trump knows from business standpoint that you ring up the cash register pronto when you have a buyer handing you money. I think he truly believes (with or without reason) that there was fraud going on and is probably banking on the new legislation passed by all the various states to keep things more square this time around. The thing is officials were never going to admit to widespread voter fraud in 2020, because it would have opened up a Pandora's box. It would have been Florida circa 2000 all over times a thousand. They would have essentially had to inspect every mail in ballot in the country and cross-check all voter rolls. Then if they found enough fraud that would have tipped the election, they'd have to admit it and everyone would want an investigation because if there was fraud in 2020, that wasn't the first time. Who lost what race by a small amount and how do we pay restitution (of some sort) to the victims? The best thing the states could offer is to reform the laws on the books and audit future elections more closely. Even then, they're walking a slippery slope. I'm not a big 2020 election denier, but that Gallup poll that showed every election since 1984 asking the question: Are you better off now than you were four years ago? Trump scored the highest of any president on that question, including Reagan (famous for asking that question in the debate). So, perhaps you are right in that Trump ended up screwing himself with the mail in voting. But after all the silly criminal cases they brought against him for the sole reason he was running again, I would not put anything past Fulton or Philadelphia counties when it comes to manipulating vote totals.
If Trump splits indies in PA with Kamala, she loses. Biden won indies in PA by 8 points in 2020. Already a larger pool of voters left outstanding on the GOP side and GOP historically turns out a slightly higher percentage of their registrants. Especially when you have a net swing of 300,000 new GOP voter registrations for this election.
