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Why is Education Level the Best Predictor of Voting?

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by citygator, Oct 21, 2024 at 9:31 AM.

  1. citygator

    citygator VIP Member

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    Question: Why is education the single best indicator of voting patterns now?

    The fault line in politics today is education. If you are more educated you vote democrat, if you are less educated you vote republican. Ironically, however, both parties are led by politicians educated at the ivy league schools.

    CNN: Why education level has become the best predictor for how someone will vote

    “The biggest single, best predictor of how someone’s going to vote in American politics now is education level. That is now the new fault line in American politics,” Sosnik told David Chalian on the “CNN Political Briefing” podcast.

    Trump’s rise over the past three election cycles, Sosnik argued, “accelerated and completed this political realignment based on education that had been forming since the early ’70s, at the beginning of the decline in the middle class.”

    As the US transitions to a 21st century economy, there’s a rift between the people who attain education – “that’s become the basic Democratic Party,” he said, comparing them with people who feel left behind, “that group of voters is now the modern Republican Party base.”

    There’s a direct correlation to politics. In 2020, according to CNN’s exit polls, voters with a college degree accounted for 41% of the electorate and they supported President Joe Biden 55% to Trump’s 43%. Trump got the support of about two-thirds of White voters without a college degree, but he lost White college-educated voters.
     
    Last edited: Oct 21, 2024 at 9:54 AM
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  2. citygator

    citygator VIP Member

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    Also... Why are all the GOP leaders highly educated Ivy Leagers? Looks to me like the elite educated GOP are leading the GOP- but to what end and why if Education is not important in the GOP?

    Trump - Penn (transfer)
    Vance - Yale
    Hawley- Yale
    Desanits - Yale/Harvard
    Cruz - Harvard
    Cotton - Harvard

    Even MTG went to University of Georgia, with all jokes aside, Georgia is a good school.
     
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  3. VAg8r1

    VAg8r1 GC Hall of Fame

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    All prime examples of highly educated politicians manipulating poorly educated voters and by the way before I am accused of demeaning voters with less formal education it was Trump himself who referred to his supporters as "poorly educated".
     
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  4. gator7_5

    gator7_5 GC Hall of Fame

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    Your post reads like everyone with a college degree votes D. Too funny. And in what measure is it the single best indicator? Seems it's still skin color as far as I can tell? Unless I'm reading it wrong.

    From your article.

    College educated favors D 55-43

    in 2022.

    African American favored D 93-5
    Hispanic Favored D 60-39
    Caucasian favored R 57-41
     
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  5. philnotfil

    philnotfil GC Hall of Fame

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    Notice that the wealthy and the powerful who insist that a college education is overrated, are all sending their kids to top schools.
     
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  6. cron78

    cron78 GC Hall of Fame

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    Partial explanation for the Dems’ insistence on cancelling student loan debt? I would argue, however, that graduated students whining for debt cancellation are part of the “feeling left behind” group that allegedly is the Pub base now. Perhaps they feel they can’t make ends meet with their overpriced degrees that the Pub “left behinders” didn’t waste time and resources to pursue. Maybe the study should evaluate gainful employment and work ethic instead of degrees. Degreed doesn’t always translate to educated. I was astonished (in a bad way) at the low level of writing and communication abilities exhibited by a lot of students in a masters degree program that I was in several years ago. It appears some schools continue with passing/promoting students that haven’t picked up the obligatory skills right on up into and out of college.

    But the bottom line to me is that the 45% vs 55% split isn’t that wide of a divide and tells me that there are plenty of folks on both sides of the political coin that have/don’t have degrees. The margin makes a difference in elections, but not necessarily in success in life.
     
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  7. wgbgator

    wgbgator Premium Member

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    This shift is a long time in the making. The college educated white professional class has become more Democratic, the white working class and wealthier non-college educated people more Republican.
     
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  8. thomadm

    thomadm VIP Member

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    Because the ruling class in the country are elitists from Ivy League schools. Bush, Obama, the Clintons etc are all from those schools, and their children go there as well. They put a R or D next to their name and herd cattle fodder to vote for them over silly, stupid things that get people's emotion up.

    They protect each other with spending bills and foreign deals to keep their families rich and power for their children. Thats just how the US gov operates.
     
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  9. gatorjd95

    gatorjd95 GC Legend

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    Maybe it depends upon what one thinks an education is? One can be pretty bright, parrot the liberal academia establishment, get a degree from a once prestigious institution or even any place calling itself a college/univesity - and voila, they enjoy the privilege of being an "educated" authority. Or, one can be pretty bright, go to trade school or mid-level university, start a business or otherwise contribute positively, and/or be willing to be denigrated by so-called academics at "top" universities for not "educated." Both have degrees, but the latter seems to deal with results and not rely on "diploma" authority. There is an old saw that liberals are educated beyond their intelligence and it seems to be a banner for the Democrat party these days. Funny how only 3-4 decades ago, the Left was the champion of the working class. Now the Left sees the working class as "uneducated" and corrosive. I'd rather consider the opinions of farmers, HVAC workers, business managers, etc. and not rely on the "-isms" championed by the "educated" elite these days.
     
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  10. wgbgator

    wgbgator Premium Member

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    Their assault on affirmative action at elite universities doesn't include legacies, I'm sure that was an oversight though
     
  11. wgbgator

    wgbgator Premium Member

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    Not in this case. Education for this purpose just means obtaining a 4 year university degree.
     
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  12. gatorjd95

    gatorjd95 GC Legend

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    Add to the mix - about 100+ years ago, children in middle school and high school were taught Latin and Greek. Now, freshmen in college are being taught remedial English. I'm a huge fan of getting a college degree - but a college degree that means something and isn't just a glamorized completion of high school which is what a lot of the current college degrees represent.
     
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  13. citygator

    citygator VIP Member

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    College educated consider themselves Democrat 2:1. Its a pretty wide gap that has grown in 4 years since 2020 and has quintupled since 1952. Its an enormous shift when the policis of the democrats favor the working class and the policies of the republicans favor the wealthy class.

    upload_2024-10-21_10-52-54.png
    Polarisation by education is remaking American politics

    It used to be that high educational attainment was a reliable predictor of Republican voting. George Babbitt, the eponymous main character of Sinclair Lewis’s 1922 satire of bourgeois conformity, is a college-educated real-estate broker for whom “the senators who controlled the Republican Party decided in little smoky rooms in Washington what he should think about disarmament, tariff, and Germany”. In later decades, data shows the same. From 1952 to 2000, a majority of white voters with college degrees self-identified as Republicans. Starting with the 2012 election, this affiliation began to weaken. It loosened even more once Mr Trump became the Republican standard-bearer in 2016. By 2020, the college-educated called themselves Democrats by a 2:1 margin. And there were many more of them; their share of the electorate rose from 8% in 1952 to 40% in 2020. Had the party held on to the rest of its support, this would have ensured an enduring majority.

    Yet at the same time, Democrats lost support among whites without college degrees. They now favour Republicans by their own margin of 2:1. (Similar trends can be seen among racial and ethnic minorities, though they have shown greater residual loyalty to the Democratic Party.) Polarisation along educational lines also means polarisation by geography because Americans increasingly sort themselves based on their educational credentials, with cities at the centre of the knowledge economy. That is why in 2020 Mr Trump won 2,588 of America’s 3,144 counties and still lost the popular vote by a wide margin. Educational polarisation also stoked conflict “over the proper source of American leadership and the proper direction of American culture”, write the political scientists Matt Grossman and David Hopkins in their incisive new book “Polarised by Degrees”. This transformation, they observe, has led the Democrats to “adopt a reputation for cultural progressivism, intellectual erudition, and demographic diversity…while traditional venues for conservative discourse have lost influence to more populist and anti-intellectual platforms”.

    This development has recast the fight by presidential campaigns to win the swing states. The influx of college-educated workers to booming sunbelt cities like Phoenix and Atlanta have turned formerly solid Republican states Arizona and Georgia into battlegrounds. The “blue wall” states—Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania—were so named for their steadfast Democratic support, grounded in working-class and union households. And yet they all went for Mr Trump in 2016, and became the most hotly contested territory for the presidential elections of 2020 and 2024. These states do not have enough college-educated whites and minorities to put Democrats in the White House or in control of Congress.
     
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  14. gatordavisl

    gatordavisl VIP Member

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    If you think real hard about it, you might understand why these numbers are not as impactful as the education gap.

    I'm more concerned about education not being a top issue in any of the debates, political ads, etc. We don't need another DeVos and the voucher/charter/privatization movement is critical.
     
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  15. thomadm

    thomadm VIP Member

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    Education will evolve to AI guided instruction and will become alot cheaper. Charter schools and public schools, doesnt matter. In 50 years, they wont exist.
     
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  16. l_boy

    l_boy 5500

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    this trend is really a post Trump trend, that may have started with the Tea Party. Prior to that much of the professional class - college educated private sector tended to vote republican. Government, educators, lawyers etc tend to vote Democrat. I suspect Democrats were more popular among the non college educated.
     
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  17. gator7_5

    gator7_5 GC Hall of Fame

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    "Impact" isn't the topic of the thread. I'm curious how the author determined education to be the "best indicator" of a voting pattern.
     
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  18. wgbgator

    wgbgator Premium Member

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    Predates Trump but he accelerated it for sure. I cant tell you how many people I know voted for Bush 1 time before finishing college and got sick of the evangelical/anti-science nonsense and are basically Democrats for life now.
     
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  19. mdgator05

    mdgator05 Premium Member

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    Yeah, that isn't true at all. Setting aside that most students left school around 13 years old at the time, most education was oriented towards the memorization of the most basic tasks, including what would be considered "remedial" English.
     
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  20. wgbgator

    wgbgator Premium Member

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    It is probably true that that far back there was more emphasis on the classical rhetorical education which included Latin and Greek, but that was hardly something every kid got, more of a "college track" even then, since there wasnt anything like standardized testing until like the 1920s.
     
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