Couple of updates. PA still trending well for the Dems. I did read Milwaukee county is underperforming for them a bit in Wi. Dane county (UWM) is doing well but can’t offset Milwaukee so watch that become a dem focus. These are the FL numbers. Someone might know more than me what they mean.
Not sure. But I wouldn’t do 2020 comparisons, Covid caused a bigger split between the two sides in who voted early and who voted on ED. 2016 might be the better comparison.
Polling got weird with the advent of push polling. I think after that nonsense started the craziness in polling has been endemic.
Fair point. Would be interesting to see both of them compared to get a better picture of what it is looking like.
Please explain how that is "still trending well for the Dems." Since your first posting of these numbers on Tuesday, Dems have seen a 77.6% gain in their returned ballot count and the GOP have seen a 121.6% gain in their returned ballot count. Coupled with the fact that the GOP still have a higher percentage of their ballots outstanding, meaning GOP voters haven't shot their wad yet. Seems clear to me this is trending GOP (at least for the time being).
If you read the Tweet thread, the poster states that the Harris team wants to have 400k+ vote lead heading into Election Day. If you go by the '20 voter turnout in PA, that would be a 5.8% lead. If you go by the '16 numbers, it would about a 7% lead. The only thing I could find on '20, is that D's outpaced R's on mail in voting in PA in by about 1.1M. Pennsylvania Early Voting Statistics
Thanks for providing the link. I'd be curious how that poster came up with the 400k number, when Biden barely won the state with a 1.1 million early Dem vote edge in 2020. Yes, there are half the number of ballots out there this year, but half of 1.1 mill is 550,000. Biden won the state by less than 100,000 votes. @oragator1 's post did say "400k to have a shot." Perhaps that implies the math gets very difficult for Harris if they don't at least have a 400k edge there. But if it turns out to be a 400,000~ edge, that's indicative of significantly weaker support from registered Dem voters for Harris than for Biden in 2020. And IIRC, there were more Dem crossover to Trump voters in PA in 2020 and 2016 than the reverse. We don't know how many of these Dem returned ballots are Trump votes.
Especially in a state with pot and abortion on the ballot, I'd be stunned if the Dems didn't garner at least 60% of the NPA vote.
So Smithley moved his number from 400,000 to 500,000. I hadn't seen that before my last post. Pretty much validates what I was saying earlier. I don't know if I would say Harris needs an 800,000 VBM edge, because there are only a little more than half of the VBM ballots out this year versus 2020, but I'm not sure how Smithley ever thought 400,000 was going to do it for her. The strong GOP early voting in other states leads me to believe GOP VBM in PA is going to continue to see gains at a higher % than Dem VBM, as it has been this week. Just the fact alone that 3 weeks out from election day the GOP are adding at a higher % has to be worrisome news for Team Harris.
Kam’s nothing more that a ditzy twit. She doesn’t understand the issues the nation faces and simply cannot even begin to devise policies to address them. If she’s elected, she’ll be worse than poor old Joe Biden.
Wow …. Kam’s pretty sad https://x.com/TerriGreenUSA/status/1847323005031944678?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1847323005031944678|twgr^f860e4f903dfa7a2e5c3ea3d03bd0b1a2aed97a0|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https://www.westernjournal.com/kamala-harris-mocks-audience-members-proclaiming-jesus-lord-says-wrong-rally/
That’s terrible. She obviously had no idea how to deal with hecklers. A true leader would have encouraged her crowd to “rough them up a little”, and then promise to pay their legal bills, but… you know… not actually pay. Leadership.
I agree. Those anti-choice people are beyond rude in addition to being unable to mind their own business. I would pay to see how your academics, SAT/LSAT scores, etc. stack up against hers.
