What does this have to do with this arg? They don't need whales to do what you are saying. Merely adjust the odds(price). If too much money is on x, raise the price which, of course, lowers the price on y. DONE. these are simple mkts. meth heads can balance bets.
I honestly wasn't paying attention to what you two were arguing about. I just heard about the 25 million on Trump thing and went and read about it.
i used to have a Kentucky Derby party every year...I was able to always make a parimutuel betting mkt work out while drinking Julieps. &, 'ats like 20 horses. didn't need fake bets, etc.
One of the articles mentioned how they are doing it but I don't remember which one. The ones betting in the millions are somehow making money by driving up the price. Something with shorting bets. I don't understand gambling enough to understand but their transactions are being tracked
'ats the prob. doing what? Are they doing it to promote Trump's election chances or make money off Trump stooges or both? that's 3 things; maybe 4. Nail something down, provide evidence & then we'll be cooking. Thus far, I see a bunch of nonsense. &, who the hell is they? Kamala fans don't like money???!
Bet all you want, suckers. All that matters is real live votes. Democrats have the ground game, donors and enthusiasm plus are picking up independent voters and new voter registrations at a higher rate than Repubs. Someone please tell us exactly how the failing, flailing Trump campaign is surging ahead of Democrats, other than your fixation on betting markets that are subject to major manipulation.
The internal polls for Democrats must be pretty discouraging Democrat senators Bob Casey in Pennsylvania and Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin are reportedly running pro-Trump ads
Why do you think Democrat senators Baldwin in Wisconsin and Casey in Pennsylvania are starting to run ads aligning themselves with Trump? I told you what was go8ng to happen weeks ago.
Latest pulling trends by the #1 pollster in the world (imo) Rich Batis from NW Gainesville Florida. If you bet for a living you have to follow Baris (and political bettor Robert Barnes) Trends Favor Trump Less than 3 Weeks Out | Inside The Numbers Ep. 529
Some of the older polls dropped off and now the right wing polls that flooded us over the past two weeks now have more weight. Harris has had some better ones come out this week. I'm starting to focus more on voter turnout by county. States like Georgia North Carolina and Pennsylvania are releasing very good information. For example, Georgia has had over 120,000 new voters vote so far. This group wouldn't be counted in the polls
I think we have two options: Either (1) the market is mistaken, offering everyone free money on the table, OR (2) bettors are suckers because the market has correctly priced the outcomes. If the right is irrationally overpricing Trump’s prospects, people should be rushing in to eat their lunch.
People are assuming it’s rational behavior and betting markets are somehow smart, but history says it’s just as likely not to be the case. In 2020, the night of the election, Trump’s odds of winning in the betting markets went up to nearly 90 percent. It was based on same day returns where he had a big lead, which was completely expected, but not to the uniformed or brainwashed masses who thought it was easy money. The implied assumption from bettors this time is that the polls are undercounting him again, because the betting odds don’t line up with the model odds. Could happen, but it’s far from a guarantee. But good news is that it doesn’t matter, the votes are what do. Emotional markets, carpet bombing of polls, every data point picked apart to show how it favors someone’s candidate, in less than three weeks we will know.
