VoteHub Polls Nate Silver mentioned another election modeling site, VoteHub. This one only uses top rated, non-partisan, polls, and leaves the 27 republican aligned polling companies (and the small number of democrat aligned ones, too) out of its averages. Has Harris winning Penn by 0.8% as the tipping point state. It's going to be very close, no matter who you believe.
Amendment 4 polling is all over the place. NYT polling has just 46% support and 38% against ... not promising. A company called "Sach Media" has 76% support ... So that pretty much tells us nothing ... Florida ballot amendment polls: Abortion, weed may have support pass (pnj.com)
Betting odds continue to move towards a trump win. They no longer have it as a coin flip. 2024 U.S. President
The flood of R polls beat down the polling averages and has led to the media saying that Trump is gaining momentum. Why are people so gullible?
The Economist with a slight edge to Harris…. Harris v Trump: 2024 presidential election prediction model
I would like to see a true break down of where all of Kamala's money is going. She has had a huge advantage over Trump in terms of donations. Where is she spending the money and how much for each different avenue? There are going to be a lot of unhappy donors on November 6th. Money can't buy this election for her.
So 2 points. First, just for fun I was looking back at 2020 just to get some idea of what is to come. I keep talking about late breakers, in 2020 they largely broke for Trump. On Oct25, Biden had an RCP average 9 point lead in MI, the final RCP average was 4.2, and the final vote was 2.8, likely due to momentum still breaking for him that wasn’t captured in the polls. On Oct 10 Biden was up 7.3 in PA and ended at 1.2, the RCP final nailed the vote. In GA he was up 2.6 on Oct 18, and ended up down .8. He did narrowly win the state in the end. Nevada was 4.6 on Oct 27, ended up 2.4 (RCP nailed the vote there). There is likely to be one more surge one way or the other. Second, as things continue to shake out, it seems there isn’t really a path for Trump if he loses GA or AZ, and likely not a path for Harris if she loses MI, since it’s usually the bluest of the rust belt states. So lets give them those states. If for fun we give her NV, then whoever wins 2/3 out of NC, MI and PA wins the presidency.
The problem with this is it's not the same two candidates and not the same circumstances in the country. And why can't Trump lose GA or AZ and not have a path? RCP has Trump +1.0 in Michigan right now, which would negate the loss of either GA or AZ. It probably bears mentioning that RCP has roughly +1.0 to Trump in GA and AZ right now as well, but he can easily lose one of those states and still win. Outcome of PA will likely predict outcome of election, although, Trump can lose PA and still win the election with a win in MI. And if we're predicting a surge in key swing states. Who typically surges late? Who has crashed and burned?
The border crisis, namely open borders, catch and release, is probably the single largest example I can recall in my generation of an administration doing actual harm to the people of the United States as a whole and Kamala was the border czar. There is simply no way she can get around that. If it wasn't for that horrific decision, Harris may have pulled this off. But then again, Biden may have never exited.
You do realize that is not a poll and doesn't belong in the polls thread, correct? I don't think anyone here gives a rat's ass about the opinions of the people you follow.
We've been doing catch and release since we have had Border Patrol. In fact, before the 1980s, the policy was let those coming in to work pass without hassle. Only the rise in drug traffic changed things and caused the huge rise in BP agent numbers, and walls on the border. Even Trump had catch and release up until the pandemic. That allowed him to enact Stay in Mexico, which on the surface, may seem like it worked. But it created a gigantic humanitarian mess in towns just on our border, and it was only going to get worse unless Biden ended the policy. Harris was also never Biden's "Border Czar." That's a title given to her by the Republicans. Harris' task was to find a way to keep immigrants from arriving in the first place, and to that, she's raised over $6.4 billion in private business investments in Central American countries. Back to the polls. Think Trump's disastrous "women's summit" filled with Trump supporters or his even worse Univision town hall is going to sway any late breaking voters? Yes, these voters broke Trump in 2016 and in 2020, but today, Trump looks like the low energy candidate who is unhinged, lying, and unable to answer simple questions.
Some of our friends who are supporting the defeated indicted former president keep emphasizing that he outperformed the polls in 2020. One of the reasons that Trump outperformed the polls in 2020 was that the Republicans had a much more vigorous ground game in 2020 than the Democrats who largely stayed home and avoided knocking on doors as a result of pandemic. The opposite is the case in 2024 with the Democrats being the party with the stronger ground game. While knocking on doors has relatively little impact on influencing voters it does go a long way in mobilizing turnout. In both 2016 and 2020 a less than one percent margin in the swing states made the difference. From 2020 The coronavirus ground game gamble hits the homestretch 2024 Team Harris gears up for 'historic' ground game in the 2024 elections
