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The first votes have been cast in the election

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by oragator1, Sep 12, 2024.

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  1. Sep 12, 2024 #1
    oragator1

    oragator1 Premium Member

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    Michael McDonald is a UF prof who tracks early voting, it’s a really interesting site to follow.
    1 vote in Iowa and 45 in PA. So we are off and running, for better or worse.

    » 2024 Early Voting UF Election Lab
     
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  2. Sep 12, 2024 #2
    wgbgator

    wgbgator Premium Member

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    Hell of a singer too

    [​IMG]
     
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  3. Sep 24, 2024 #3
    oragator1

    oragator1 Premium Member

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    Numbers are stating to come in on the mail ballots.
    Not much on in person yet, but those should start to tally soon. You can also see the states where early voting has started.
     
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  4. Sep 24, 2024 #4
    BigCypressGator1981

    BigCypressGator1981 GC Hall of Fame

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    If I have to hear ‘Yah Mo B There’ one more time, I'm gonna ‘Yah Mo’ burn this place to the ground.
     
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  5. Sep 24, 2024 #5
    channingcrowderhungry

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    Bottom of a pint glass
    STOP THE COUNT!
     
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  6. Sep 26, 2024 #6
    oragator1

    oragator1 Premium Member

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    The reason I follow this site is because it can portend larger trends or give an early clue on where momentum is. The sample size is small so far so I wouldn’t pull too much from it yet. But as an example of a couple things to watch, Dems requested mail ballots at a rate of 1.75:1 vs. republicans in the states he has data for, but so far have returned them at a rate of 3:1 over republicans. On the flip side, African Americans have returned them at a lower rate than other groups, which would go against what you might expect this election. Men are returning them at a higher rate than women too so far.
    Tiny sample so like I said nothing definitive at this point, but interesting to watch.
     
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  7. Oct 14, 2024 #7
    oragator1

    oragator1 Premium Member

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    Continues a trend that may or may not last.

     
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  8. Oct 14, 2024 #8
    oragator1

    oragator1 Premium Member

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    Don’t care what your pursuasion is politically. This is cool.

     
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  9. Oct 14, 2024 #9
    okeechobee

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    My friend, here's another example of using the aggregate instead of cherry picking:
     
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  10. Oct 14, 2024 #10
    dangolegators

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    Hmm. I wonder what was going on in 2020 that would make people not want to stand in lines and be in crowds?
     
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  11. Oct 15, 2024 #11
    rtgator

    rtgator Premium Member

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    News flash!!!

    Donald Trump is already whining and crying about imaginary voter fraud based on the 0.003% of the votes already cast!!!

    DJT exclaims . . . . .

    FB_IMG_1630171685936.jpg
     
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  12. Oct 15, 2024 #12
    oragator1

    oragator1 Premium Member

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    Hope a Jimmy Carter got his vote in today, he was literally trying to live long enough to vote.
     
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  13. Oct 15, 2024 #13
    oragator1

    oragator1 Premium Member

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  14. Oct 15, 2024 #14
    oragator1

    oragator1 Premium Member

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    I know there was a separate thread on PA at some point, but here is the latest from there. Dems probbaly need at least a 400k cushion on Election Day to have a decent shot.

     
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  15. Oct 15, 2024 #15
    Gatorrick22

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    I want to see the civil war veteran voters... I'm sure they have thousands of them.
     
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  16. Oct 15, 2024 #16
    okeechobee

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    ^^ This is not the latest data out of PA. Latest data show the following in Pennsylvania:

    Dems mail in ballots returned: 351,344
    GOP mail in ballots returned: 125,218

    Observations: expect about half the number of total mail in ballot votes in PA this year compared to the 2020 election, based on the number of mail-in ballots sent out and typical return rate. Also, it appears a significantly higher percentage of Dem ballot recipients have already voted compared to the GOP ballot recipients and that validates in the latest data in comparison to your data quoted above.

    If you look at the rate of return between the newer data here and your data above, the GOP ballot returns are increasing in velocity compared to Dem ballot returns (as a percentage of total mail in ballots sent out) and that is because traditionally, Dem voters vote early and a higher proportion of Dem mail in ballots that were sent out have been returned in PA compared to GOP ballots. This is verifiable in 2020 exit polling data:

    Screenshot 2024-10-15 at 10.42.05 PM.png
    In other words, these aren't good numbers for the Dems in PA. As a percentage of mail in ballots that were sent out:

    - 60% were Dem ballots
    - 28% were GOP ballots
    - ~12% were "other" or independent ballots

    Based on what I see, the +400,000 vote delta you speak of will be a challenge to hit, but certainly not impossible. That is because a much higher proportion of the GOP ballots in PA are still outstanding versus proportion of Dem ballots still outstanding and that velocity will continue to increase on the GOP side up until Election Day, based on historical performance and what we are already seeing in the new data I've brought here before you.

    Elections Data | Voting & Election Information | Commonwealth of Pennsylvania
     
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  17. Oct 15, 2024 #17
    oragator1

    oragator1 Premium Member

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    I guess I’m allowed to sidetrack my own thread, but here’s an amazing piece of Trivia there. The last civil war pensioner only died this decade. Seriously.

    Last American to Collect a Civil War Pension Dies
     
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  18. Oct 15, 2024 #18
    l_boy

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    The BLM riots so voters were scared to go outside and instead requested mail in ballots.
     
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  19. Oct 15, 2024 #19
    Gatorrick22

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    That's crazy. My dad told me about an old lady (100 years old) that lived next door to his house in Virginia, he was 5 in 1945. And her father was an officer in the military who knew Robert E. Lee. She too had met him. How many degrees of separation is that from George Washington? Lol... :D

    Funny thing is when I was 4 and 5 I lived in Virginia too.
     
  20. Oct 15, 2024 #20
    oragator1

    oragator1 Premium Member

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    Yeah the threads of history are crazy. Zachary Taylor still has a surviving grandson, and he was born in 1784.

    the last US WW1 vet, Frank Buckles, who died in 2011 at 110, had a grandfather who was still alive when he was born and who he remembered. The guy was born in 1817 and surely knew some revolutionary war vets, so until 2011, there was someone alive who was once removed from that war. Heck Taylor’s grandson may be too.
     
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