Who told you that Nate Silver was a pollster? Also, I directly answered your question before. You seem to be a pretty bad reader and guesser. But it must be difficult trying to keep track of all your personas in another language.
Here's the problem with going on The View and saying you can't think of a single thing you would have done differently than Joe Biden has:
The funny thing about Joe Biden's approval number being 41%... if you click all six issues listed in the quoted above, his approvals are far worse on all of them. For those of you who like "cross tabs", understand that his approval rating actually in the 30's based on real job performance. It only went up to 41% in the overall after he acquiesced to the coup. So, Kamala is essentially running on a campaign of mid 30's approval rating policy. She won't win.
I can’t see how she would, but I wouldn’t bet against it. As long as there’s a D by her name she’ll get votes. I’m just not sure how many will vote without the massive mail in, covid ruled, ballets.
I understand, but her numbers will deteriorate even further over the next 23 days unless something totally unexpected and drastic occurs. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he won the popular vote. The race is clearly breaking away from her down the home stretch. Dems behind closed doors are in panic mode, because it portends badly for the down ballot.
Nothing has really changed down the stretch. When you look at Nate Silver’s polling average, it’s as steady as a rock with Harris about +3 for weeks. And I don’t think that is even his bias adjusted polling average in his free page… just his straight average. What changed is we entered the phase where Republican polling services are spamming out new polls everyday to skew the perception. Truth is, the race is a toss up that very slightly favors Harris, and has been for several weeks.
A week before the Harris-Trump debate in September, Harris led Trump by three points. Then came the debate, during which Trump turned in the second-worst debate performance in recent memory. Then came another attempted assassination of Trump, after the shooting at a campaign rally in July. Then the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points. Then Israel launched a ground invasion of Lebanon. Then came the vice-presidential debate. Then came a surprisingly strong jobs report. In this period, Harris released an 82-page booklet of policy proposals and Jack Smith, the special counsel prosecuting Trump in the Jan. 6 case, filed a 165-page brief adding new details of Trump’s efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election. After all that, Harris is now leading Trump by … three points. Ignore the Polls - NYT
Nothing fundamental has changed in the race since Harris entered. Nothing fundamental is going to change with the polls between now and election day. At this point it's pointless to react to every poll that comes out. Some states have already sent out their mail ballots and early voting starts next week. Nothing is going to change at this point
Online betting sites are -130/+110 in favor of the guy who tried to illegally overturn an election. Darkness.
Betting sites are ran by right wing crypto bros and mean very little. Everyone’s favorite, Polymarket, is a Peter Theil operation. Harris is going to win, the polls are massively underselling the youth vote in this election since a lot of new voters weren’t eligible to vote in 2020 and aren’t accounted in poll history accuracy.
I certainly hope you're right. But these are legit sites where you can bet at least up to $500 at a time. I used to use one. Side note; my buddy put $450 on KH back when the odds were +2000 for her. $9,000 if he wins. Tried to convince to to put a bet on the traitor when it was +130 to hedge, but he wouldn't. Just more reason to root for Harris.
