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Early Voting Trends in Pennsylvania

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by gatorchamps960608, Oct 11, 2024.

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  1. Oct 11, 2024 #1
    gatorchamps960608

    gatorchamps960608 GC Hall of Fame

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    This information comes from the Twitter feed of pollster Tom Bonier (@tbonier on Twitter). If you think that the Democrats are aiming hurricanes at red states, it will be above your pay grade.

    This information is just about early trends and may be indicative of nothing. It's hard to compare it with 2020 during a pandemic and when one of the 2 major nominees was urging his voters to not do mail-in and early voting and make concrete conclusions about the final outcome.

    So with that being said, here are some items of note:

    • Dems have a solid advantage in terms of party registration but less than 2020
    • More total ballots have been reported cast at this same point in 2020
    • Voter models believe that NPA votes are trending more Democratic than 2020
    • NPA voters are tending to be Persons of Color. The white share is down 6 points from 2020 at this point.
    • The share of female voters is trending along the lines of 2022 not 2020 indicating the Dobbs case is likely still a factor.
    • The female POC vote shows a 248% increase in the early vote vs. 2020. White women show a 146% increase.
    • The GOP has been working to convert Election Day voters into early voters but any gains there have been usurped by likely Dem POC voters.
    Again, this election may be its own brand of unicorn but this is what the early voting is showing so far.
     
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  2. Oct 11, 2024 #2
    oragator1

    oragator1 Hurricane Hunter Premium Member

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    I posted a thread on early voting that no one seemed to care about, but the trend is national, Dems are returning their ballots at a higher rate than other groups around the country. Click on the mail voting tab for the rates.

    » 2024 Early Voting UF Election Lab
     
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  3. Oct 11, 2024 #3
    enviroGator

    enviroGator GC Hall of Fame

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    Please, please, please let this be the indicator that Dems are coming out in force this year like we all hoped.

    A second Trump term is just too horrible to imagine.

    [​IMG]
     
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  4. Oct 11, 2024 #4
    oragator1

    oragator1 Hurricane Hunter Premium Member

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    This is the full Twitter thread. The hope for the Dems is that women and African Americans come out at high rates to offset the Republican registration gains. Early votes say it’s happening, but long way to go, so no guarantee at this point.
     
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  5. Oct 11, 2024 #5
    BigCypressGator1981

    BigCypressGator1981 GC Hall of Fame

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    hey Welch. You ever gonna pay up? Is this you being a buckeye? An ohio thing to not pay bets? Pathetic.
     
  6. Oct 11, 2024 #6
    BigCypressGator1981

    BigCypressGator1981 GC Hall of Fame

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    lol so buckeye upgraded to premium so he could ignore me and I don’t see his posts.

    What an unbelievably lame move to Welch on a bet. pathetic.
     
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  7. Oct 11, 2024 #7
    murphree_hall

    murphree_hall VIP Member

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    What’s the backstory here?
     
  8. Oct 11, 2024 #8
    BigCypressGator1981

    BigCypressGator1981 GC Hall of Fame

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    back in early 2022 we were all in a thread talking about Trump and he was busting balls about how we were obsessed with Trump and how he’s irrelevant and we have to let it go. So I bet him $100 Trump would be the GOP nominee in 2024 and he accepted. I have screen shots of the posts.

    I called him out on it was when Trump won the nomination and we exchanged some DMs about hjow he is a boomer and doesn’t know how to use PayPal, Venmo, Zelle etc. Said he wanted to send me a money order (lol). Gave him my address and nada.

    Called him out several times since and still nada.
     
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  9. Oct 11, 2024 #9
    citygator

    citygator VIP Member

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    Charlotte
    I didn’t see this thread and put the twitter thread in the polls thread.

    It good to get some favorable trends but who really knows? Fingers crossed.
     
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  10. Oct 11, 2024 #10
    gator_jo

    gator_jo GC Hall of Fame

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    He had a spare $100 laying around?
     
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  11. Oct 11, 2024 #11
    Emmitto

    Emmitto VIP Member

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    So it’s over? Who won? I just got home.
     
  12. Oct 11, 2024 #12
    G8tas

    G8tas GC Hall of Fame

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    @buckeyegator Are you ignoring the man or what?
     
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  13. Oct 11, 2024 #13
    dangolegators

    dangolegators GC Hall of Fame

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    I don't think you have to upgrade to premium to place people on ignore, unless something has changed.
     
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  14. Oct 11, 2024 #14
    dangolegators

    dangolegators GC Hall of Fame

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    Or is it that you have to be premium to block people from seeing your posts?
     
  15. Oct 11, 2024 #15
    HeyItsMe

    HeyItsMe GC Hall of Fame

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    You don’t. I’m no longer a premium member and I’ve blocked a bunch of the usual goobers on this board.
     
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  16. Oct 11, 2024 #16
    GatorJMDZ

    GatorJMDZ gatorjack VIP Member

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    Here, @BigCypressGator1981, I'll help.

    I don't know what's worse...welching on a bet or refusing to acknowledge being called out for it on multiple occasions.
    @buckeyegator: What do you have to say about this?:

    "back in early 2022 we were all in a thread talking about Trump and he was busting balls about how we were obsessed with Trump and how he’s irrelevant and we have to let it go. So I bet him $100 Trump would be the GOP nominee in 2024 and he accepted. I have screen shots of the posts.

    I called him out on it was when Trump won the nomination and we exchanged some DMs about hjow he is a boomer and doesn’t know how to use PayPal, Venmo, Zelle etc. Said he wanted to send me a money order (lol). Gave him my address and nada.

    Called him out several times since and still nada"
     
    Last edited: Oct 11, 2024
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  17. Oct 11, 2024 #17
    dangolegators

    dangolegators GC Hall of Fame

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    I guess it must be that with premium you can prevent people from seeing your posts (in addition to blocking yourself from seeing their posts).
     
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  18. Oct 12, 2024 #18
    enviroGator

    enviroGator GC Hall of Fame

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    QUOTE="BigCypressGator1981, post: 16965403, member: 26647"]hey Welch. You ever gonna pay up? Is this you being a buckeye? An ohio thing to not pay bets? Pathetic.[/QUOTE]

    I'll help a brother out.

    Hey Buckeye ... pay up!
     
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  19. Oct 27, 2024 #19
    GatorJMDZ

    GatorJMDZ gatorjack VIP Member

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    Any updates? Surely with the number of times @buckeyegator has been called out for welching on your bet he has paid up or, at the very least, responded to you??
     
  20. Oct 27, 2024 #20
    Orange_and_Bluke

    Orange_and_Bluke Premium Member

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    How do you block yourself from posting?
    Asking for many friends.
     
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