Welcome home, fellow Gator.

The Gator Nation's oldest and most active insider community
Join today!
  1. Hi there... Can you please quickly check to make sure your email address is up to date here? Just in case we need to reach out to you or you lose your password. Muchero thanks!

Early Voting Trends in Pennsylvania

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by gatorchamps960608, Oct 11, 2024.

Page 1 of 2
  1. Oct 11, 2024 #1
    gatorchamps960608

    gatorchamps960608 GC Hall of Fame

    4,520
    942
    2,463
    Jul 4, 2020
    This information comes from the Twitter feed of pollster Tom Bonier (@tbonier on Twitter). If you think that the Democrats are aiming hurricanes at red states, it will be above your pay grade.

    This information is just about early trends and may be indicative of nothing. It's hard to compare it with 2020 during a pandemic and when one of the 2 major nominees was urging his voters to not do mail-in and early voting and make concrete conclusions about the final outcome.

    So with that being said, here are some items of note:

    • Dems have a solid advantage in terms of party registration but less than 2020
    • More total ballots have been reported cast at this same point in 2020
    • Voter models believe that NPA votes are trending more Democratic than 2020
    • NPA voters are tending to be Persons of Color. The white share is down 6 points from 2020 at this point.
    • The share of female voters is trending along the lines of 2022 not 2020 indicating the Dobbs case is likely still a factor.
    • The female POC vote shows a 248% increase in the early vote vs. 2020. White women show a 146% increase.
    • The GOP has been working to convert Election Day voters into early voters but any gains there have been usurped by likely Dem POC voters.
    Again, this election may be its own brand of unicorn but this is what the early voting is showing so far.
     
    • Informative Informative x 4
    • Optimistic Optimistic x 2
    • Like Like x 1
    • Funny Funny x 1
  2. Oct 11, 2024 #2
    oragator1

    oragator1 Hurricane Hunter Premium Member

    23,310
    5,992
    3,513
    Apr 3, 2007
    I posted a thread on early voting that no one seemed to care about, but the trend is national, Dems are returning their ballots at a higher rate than other groups around the country. Click on the mail voting tab for the rates.

    » 2024 Early Voting UF Election Lab
     
    • Informative Informative x 4
  3. Oct 11, 2024 #3
    enviroGator

    enviroGator GC Hall of Fame

    5,532
    765
    368
    Apr 12, 2007
    Please, please, please let this be the indicator that Dems are coming out in force this year like we all hoped.

    A second Trump term is just too horrible to imagine.

    [​IMG]
     
    • Like Like x 4
    • Winner Winner x 4
    • Optimistic Optimistic x 1
  4. Oct 11, 2024 #4
    oragator1

    oragator1 Hurricane Hunter Premium Member

    23,310
    5,992
    3,513
    Apr 3, 2007
    This is the full Twitter thread. The hope for the Dems is that women and African Americans come out at high rates to offset the Republican registration gains. Early votes say it’s happening, but long way to go, so no guarantee at this point.
     
    • Like Like x 1
    • Informative Informative x 1
  5. Oct 11, 2024 #5
    BigCypressGator1981

    BigCypressGator1981 GC Hall of Fame

    6,707
    1,374
    3,103
    Oct 11, 2011
    hey Welch. You ever gonna pay up? Is this you being a buckeye? An ohio thing to not pay bets? Pathetic.
     
  6. Oct 11, 2024 #6
    BigCypressGator1981

    BigCypressGator1981 GC Hall of Fame

    6,707
    1,374
    3,103
    Oct 11, 2011
    lol so buckeye upgraded to premium so he could ignore me and I don’t see his posts.

    What an unbelievably lame move to Welch on a bet. pathetic.
     
    • Funny Funny x 2
    • Informative Informative x 1
  7. Oct 11, 2024 #7
    murphree_hall

    murphree_hall VIP Member

    9,222
    4,610
    2,898
    Jul 11, 2019
    What’s the backstory here?
     
  8. Oct 11, 2024 #8
    BigCypressGator1981

    BigCypressGator1981 GC Hall of Fame

    6,707
    1,374
    3,103
    Oct 11, 2011
    back in early 2022 we were all in a thread talking about Trump and he was busting balls about how we were obsessed with Trump and how he’s irrelevant and we have to let it go. So I bet him $100 Trump would be the GOP nominee in 2024 and he accepted. I have screen shots of the posts.

    I called him out on it was when Trump won the nomination and we exchanged some DMs about hjow he is a boomer and doesn’t know how to use PayPal, Venmo, Zelle etc. Said he wanted to send me a money order (lol). Gave him my address and nada.

    Called him out several times since and still nada.
     
    • Fistbump/Thanks! Fistbump/Thanks! x 1
    • Funny Funny x 1
    • Informative Informative x 1
  9. Oct 11, 2024 #9
    citygator

    citygator VIP Member

    12,034
    2,628
    3,303
    Apr 3, 2007
    Charlotte
    I didn’t see this thread and put the twitter thread in the polls thread.

    It good to get some favorable trends but who really knows? Fingers crossed.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  10. Oct 11, 2024 #10
    gator_jo

    gator_jo GC Hall of Fame

    1,839
    240
    193
    Aug 9, 2024
    He had a spare $100 laying around?
     
    • Optimistic Optimistic x 1
  11. Oct 11, 2024 #11
    Emmitto

    Emmitto VIP Member

    9,247
    1,780
    933
    Apr 3, 2007
    So it’s over? Who won? I just got home.
     
  12. Oct 11, 2024 #12
    G8tas

    G8tas GC Hall of Fame

    4,688
    941
    453
    Sep 22, 2008
    @buckeyegator Are you ignoring the man or what?
     
    • Winner Winner x 2
  13. Oct 11, 2024 #13
    dangolegators

    dangolegators GC Hall of Fame

    11,634
    789
    1,708
    Apr 26, 2007
    I don't think you have to upgrade to premium to place people on ignore, unless something has changed.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
    • Funny Funny x 1
    • Winner Winner x 1
  14. Oct 11, 2024 #14
    dangolegators

    dangolegators GC Hall of Fame

    11,634
    789
    1,708
    Apr 26, 2007
    Or is it that you have to be premium to block people from seeing your posts?
     
  15. Oct 11, 2024 #15
    HeyItsMe

    HeyItsMe GC Hall of Fame

    1,878
    558
    2,088
    Mar 7, 2009
    You don’t. I’m no longer a premium member and I’ve blocked a bunch of the usual goobers on this board.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  16. Oct 11, 2024 #16
    GatorJMDZ

    GatorJMDZ gatorjack VIP Member

    25,366
    2,700
    1,868
    Apr 3, 2007
    Here, @BigCypressGator1981, I'll help.

    I don't know what's worse...welching on a bet or refusing to acknowledge being called out for it on multiple occasions.
    @buckeyegator: What do you have to say about this?:

    "back in early 2022 we were all in a thread talking about Trump and he was busting balls about how we were obsessed with Trump and how he’s irrelevant and we have to let it go. So I bet him $100 Trump would be the GOP nominee in 2024 and he accepted. I have screen shots of the posts.

    I called him out on it was when Trump won the nomination and we exchanged some DMs about hjow he is a boomer and doesn’t know how to use PayPal, Venmo, Zelle etc. Said he wanted to send me a money order (lol). Gave him my address and nada.

    Called him out several times since and still nada"
     
    Last edited: Oct 11, 2024
    • Fistbump/Thanks! Fistbump/Thanks! x 1
    • Best Post Ever Best Post Ever x 1
  17. Oct 11, 2024 #17
    dangolegators

    dangolegators GC Hall of Fame

    11,634
    789
    1,708
    Apr 26, 2007
    I guess it must be that with premium you can prevent people from seeing your posts (in addition to blocking yourself from seeing their posts).
     
    • Agree Agree x 2
  18. Oct 12, 2024 #18
    enviroGator

    enviroGator GC Hall of Fame

    5,532
    765
    368
    Apr 12, 2007
    QUOTE="BigCypressGator1981, post: 16965403, member: 26647"]hey Welch. You ever gonna pay up? Is this you being a buckeye? An ohio thing to not pay bets? Pathetic.[/QUOTE]

    I'll help a brother out.

    Hey Buckeye ... pay up!
     
    • Best Post Ever Best Post Ever x 1
  19. Oct 27, 2024 #19
    GatorJMDZ

    GatorJMDZ gatorjack VIP Member

    25,366
    2,700
    1,868
    Apr 3, 2007
    Any updates? Surely with the number of times @buckeyegator has been called out for welching on your bet he has paid up or, at the very least, responded to you??
     
  20. Oct 27, 2024 #20
    Orange_and_Bluke

    Orange_and_Bluke Premium Member

    10,313
    2,543
    3,288
    Dec 16, 2015
    How do you block yourself from posting?
    Asking for many friends.
     
    • Funny Funny x 1
Page 1 of 2