Trump vs. Harris - Please put all new polls here.

Do these polls account for turnout in anyway? Seems like among voters responding to these polls, the split is basically 50/50 but that doesn't mean voters are going to turn out in equal numbers.

 

Pollster Rich Baris

Trump up 13 in Florida

Trump running 10% better in Cali compared to 2020

And more (3 minutes)

 

Rich Baris: A Kamala collapse in the Midwest? (2 hours)

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Silver, 538, and others all seem to be on Harris +10. I’d consider that a toss up except for the fact the right leaning polling companies spamming polls and skewing the averages. I hope I’m right … it would be fun watching the people who are so sure of themselves making excuses and crying about voter fraud.

 

Uh, no. Harris is killing it with the under 30 crowd

 

Red America has the poorest communities …

 

Very interesting thread on PA early voting. Don’t read if you’re a Russian bot you won’t like it.

 

Jill Stein crushing it with Muslim voters in Michigan. Runner-up is Trump followed by Kamala. Harris is bleeding Jewish votes. For the firstime ever(?) Democrats are running an attack ad against a 3rd party candidate (Jill Stein).

 

Trump now ~50-50 to take Maine and New Hampshire.

North Carolina has been a. wrap for Trump for a long time. NC is becoming the new Florida.

Sunbelt is all Trump

Minnesota is in play, slthough fraud in the twin cities will be tough to beat

Harris lead in New Jersey only 7-11% (Baris)

Harris lead in Maryland may be only 10%

Trump is not far behind in New Mexico, needs to get to 45% with Hispanics to make it super close. Currently has 40% of Hispanics.

 

Harris 6% behind where she needs to be (probably needs to win popular vote by at least 3.5%-4.5% to have a good shot at winning

 

As predicted Nate Silver is showing the race is getting closer.

Nate is a fraud. He has no model.

In his last post Nate will predict a Trump victory so as to regain credibility lost.

 

Trump should win 17% to 20% of 5he black vote imo

 

Have you considered your daughters are being kind to their old fossil of a father and are finding common ground?

 

The early vote numbers are looking really good for Kamala in Michigan and Wisconsin compared to 2020 at this time

 

Notwithstanding who Barkley cast his ballot for, Alabama has elected one Democratic governor since 1987.

 

When I talk about cross tabs, stuff like this is a glaring. The TIPP poll in PA that put Trump ahead there had 124 Philly voters in it, they counted only 12 of them in the likely voter model. But it accomplished its goal, it gave Trump a lead on RCP in PA for now. Had it been Harris plus four (which it would have been if it used anything resembling decent methodology), she would be winning there still on RCP. But now they get the social media buzz about taking over the lead there. I think I read another tweet that 12 of the last 15 polls in the state have been from conservative pollsters.
Not that it matters a ton right now, there will be weeks more polls done and whatever the truth is will shake out, the race will change a couple more times likely…it’s just crazy that someone would be this brazen and then try and defend it. They need a career between elections and stuff like this makes them radioactive to most organizations.

 

Is that new? I saw him go there a month or more ago. I thought I saw he had it about even on his last one?

 

Early voting is down — and the numbers hold bad news for Democrats (nypost.com)

Early voting is nowhere near what some people estimated: 4.2 million Americans have already cast their ballots, per John Couvillon, a Republican political strategist who provides daily updates on early and mail voting.

That sounds like a lot, but it’s a pittance compared with the 158.6 million votes ultimately cast in 2020.

More important, it’s significantly less than this point in 2020: Early voting is down 45%, Couvillon’s numbers show.

The fact there will likely be as many as 1 million fewer mail ballots in Pennsylvania this year means Democrats will have to run a superior ground game simply to hold level with their 2020 showing.