Trump vs. Harris - Please put all new polls here.

The news for Harris just keeps getting worse. New Wall Street Journal poll dropped today. Nevada +6 Trump.

 

That new WSJ poll out of Nevada today has flipped Nevada to Trump on RCP's no toss up states. They now have Trump winning 302 electoral votes:

 

Give it a few more days and Wisconsin will flip to Trump as well. Harris' lead there is currently +0.3 per RCP, but the trend is clear. Nightmare scenario for Harris campaign as Wisconsin polling has traditionally so egregiously underestimated Trump's support in the state, erring 7.2 points to Clinton in 2016 and 6.0 points to Biden in 2020.

 

As predicted many months ago

 

Pubs are actually scoring points on social media. My 20 and 18 year old daughters are enduring their first election. (They are both little libbies. .)
...but conversations around our kitchen with them and their friends focus on the border of all things. And they are pretty sympathetic to more liberal/centrist view on abortion than my wife and I.

Republicans are killing Harris with border info on Insta, snap and tiktok. And that seems to matter more in our kitchen

I think Republicans are doing better in some of this demo than people realize. I know it's anecdoatal, but thats what I see in my very normal circle of college kids that frequent our house..

 

A reminder of Wisconsin's 2023 Supreme Court election.
Liberal judge Janet Protasiewicz won a seat on Wisconsin's state Supreme Court, flipping the body's ideological majority.
Not only did Protasiewicz win, she won by a margin of over 10 percent in an election in which one of the most significant issues was whether Wisconsin's zombie anti-abortion law from the 19th Century would be resurrected.

 

What I've been saying. Perspective is everything...

RCP National Average: Harris +1.8, Four Years Ago Biden Led +10.3

 

Say what you might about Trump, but his campaign's ad spots have been strong. Granted, they have a buffet of material to pick from, but to your point, they're doing it and doing it quite effectively. (for far less money, I'll point out).

For the GOP, it'll be interesting to see if they end up flipping Senate seats in PA and OH. I doubt it, but those polls have tightened considerably.

 

This is fascinating stuff. Not the dark motivation hypothesis. I think the idea that this could be used as legal evidence of a stolen election is nonsense. After all, the polls and betting markets were all heavily in Hillary’s favor in 2016. Now, such a result could be used to rile up Trump supporters, but clearly there is no shortage of occurrences that could do that.

The interesting part is the potential manipulation of a market. If their market is off, one would think it would recruit bettors to take the favorable odds. Presumably they aren’t limiting the ability of bettors to wager on Harris, or we would hear about it. The article makes an interesting point about how maximum bets are limited in the other markets but not in poly market. Indeed, this makes poly market predictions more responsive to high rollers. Perhaps this is why poly market’s line has diverged from those of the other markets. As long as the markets are split, I don’t think we can identify a clear leader. Frankly, it would be surprising if Trump won by a solid electoral margin. Depressingly.

 

#NEW Nate Silver 2024 election forecast update

Harris: 54.9% (+10)
Trump: 44.9%

 

Once again this isn't 2020. 2022 and even 2008 are better models. In 2022 Democratic candidates significantly outperformed the polls and there is probably more enthusiasm among likely Democratic voters this year than in any presidential election since 2008. One metric used to measure voter enthusiasm is the share of donations from small donors. In 2016 and 2020 Trump led the Democratic candidates, not so in 2024.
More than $200m: How Kamala Harris is winning the small donors battle

Trump's small-dollar contributions have plummeted since his last campaign

 

For perspective, the current betting market odds are the equivalent of a football team (Trump) having a -3 point spread on a neutral field against Harris. In November 2016, the betting markets had Trump as a +15 point dog against Hillary. Let that sink in...

In November 2020, betting markets had Biden favored -5 points on a neutral field against Trump.

 

Also, Polymarket seems to be in line with most of the others...

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/28/upshot/election-forecasting-washington-primary.html

Interesting article- I had missed this months ago but just thought it was neat. Just sharing fwiw. Sorry if already posted. It’s about how the state of Washington primary has been a pretty good barometer of the relative mood of the country re voting r vs d. There are other articles out there about this if you can’t access the times.

 

We might as well start predicting the winner based on whether the groundhog sees his shadow or not.

 

Um … ok.

 

If it’s a Republican leaning year in the end, this won’t matter much
But it’s fascinating to me how over the last 5 years or so this has become a cottage industry on the right.

 

That’s so they can claim voter fraud when they lose. “But all the biased polls that told me what I want to hear said Trump was winning!”

 

Thanks for posting that. I've suspected that was the case for a while, but only knew of Trafalgar and Insider Advantage as being slanted republican polls, it appears they are multiplying. I've wonder what the purpose is of having numerous slanted polls, but I think it's to bombard the averages that people watch on 538 and RCP, and keep their party thinking they are winning. Then, if they lose, that scream about voter fraud. It may come to the point that serious modelers, like 538, need to exclude more polls in the same way they did Rasmussen.