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Economy strong for consumers & big companies

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by PITBOSS, Oct 11, 2024.

  1. PITBOSS

    PITBOSS GC Hall of Fame

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    Some good news for our economy. Mkt trending up this morning.

    “The S&P 500 rose and the Dow hit a record high on Friday, driven by gains in major banks following third-quarter results, while mixed producer price data backed expectations for a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November”

    S&P 500, Dow rise on boost from big bank earnings — Reuters



    “JPMorgan Chase on Friday said the U.S. economy remains strong for both consumers and big companies, a sign that the Federal Reserve may have achieved the much-discussed soft landing with lower inflation and healthy growth.”

    https://www.wsj.com/finance/banking...76ab9?st=9MYEto&reflink=article_copyURL_share
     
    Last edited: Oct 11, 2024
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  2. citygator

    citygator VIP Member

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    Thanks Donald!

     
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  3. okeechobee

    okeechobee GC Hall of Fame

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    Maybe Covid was the great reset and we have years more to go on the current expansion. I always discounted the brief Covid "recession" as not a function of the economy, but of a pandemic. Therefore, we are way overdue for a recession, but I suppose that outlook could have been wrong if the quick downturn in 2020 achieved the economic cycling that you normally see every 7 or 8 years in an economy. I suppose that's quite plausible.
     
  4. PITBOSS

    PITBOSS GC Hall of Fame

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    Majority in US hoping the mkt continues, and this holds true….


    “of hundreds of U.S. election polls dating back to 1998, FiveThirtyEight senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich found that pollsters accurately predicted the winner only 78% of the time, and in 2022, they did so in just 72% of the races.

    On the other hand, the S&P 500’s performance between August and October has accurately predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1984. In the years when the blue-chip index rises between August and October, the incumbent party has won every time, but when the S&P 500 has fallen over that period, it’s always signaled an impending victory for the challenger.”

    Forget polls, the stock market is the most accurate predictor of presidential elections
     
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  5. NavyGator93

    NavyGator93 GC Hall of Fame

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    It's been an incredible market run. I'm always waiting for the shoe to drop but it hasn't really for a very long time. Somewhat concerning.

    My largest holding in HD and the are sitting close to an all time high which makes me happy but also a little nervous.
     
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  6. citygator

    citygator VIP Member

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    Preliminary October Consumer Sentiment:

    "Consumer sentiment inched down a meager 1.2 index points in October, well within the margin of error, following two straight months of gains. Sentiment is currently 8% stronger than a year ago and almost 40% above the trough reached in June 2022. While inflation expectations have eased substantially since then, consumers continue to express frustration over high prices. Still, long run business conditions lifted to its highest reading in six months, while current and expected personal finances both softened slightly. Despite widespread news coverage about the Middle East and Ukraine, few consumers connected these developments to the economy. Concerns over these conflicts climbed this month but were relatively rare, mentioned spontaneously by less than 5% of consumers. With the upcoming election on the horizon, some consumers appear to be withholding judgment about the longer term trajectory of the economy."
     
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  7. sierragator

    sierragator GC Hall of Fame

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    Rooster takes credit for sunrise
     
  8. gator95

    gator95 GC Hall of Fame

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    Yeah, the economy seems great...

    Would love to see the auditing of this going forward. Oh and Massachusetts has 7 million residents, so almost 10% of the population added EBT cards in a year?

     
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  9. okeechobee

    okeechobee GC Hall of Fame

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    Wonder how many of those scenarios involved a half-point rate cut from the Fed in the September prior to the election? When the Fed becomes overtly dovish, that will always cause a stock market to rally. Money is cheaper to borrow and invest, yielding higher return, stock market goes up. That is why, for example, the stock market set an all-time record high in 2020 despite a global pandemic and supply shortages.
     
  10. PITBOSS

    PITBOSS GC Hall of Fame

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    it doesn’t always equate to immediate stock market increase for the period we’re looking at. But agree I would think it should help.

    In the three months following a rate cut, the market often dips, but typically rebounds by the six-month mark. This aligns with conventional wisdom that lower interest rates stimulate economic activity by reducing borrowing costs for businesses and consumers, which tends to benefit the stock market.”

    https://www.visualcapitalist.com/sp-500-performance-after-interest-rate-cuts/#:~:text=Historically, the S&P 500 returns,by the six-month mark.
     
    Last edited: Oct 11, 2024
  11. PITBOSS

    PITBOSS GC Hall of Fame

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    Some profit taking at 3:30 ET but good day to end the week.


    upload_2024-10-11_17-15-56.png


    upload_2024-10-11_17-16-32.png
     
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  12. WarDamnGator

    WarDamnGator GC Hall of Fame

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    Cool ... here's what your boy Trump did all across the nation ... a 300% increase ...

    upload_2024-10-11_19-19-25.png
     
  13. gator95

    gator95 GC Hall of Fame

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    Who cares about trump? This is about the economy right now and the fact that almost 10% of MA residents are on EBT should be frightening to everyone. But you keep brining up random unrelated crap. And people wonder why some will vote for trump…

    The economy is not humming along. Some are doing well, but a lot of the country is struggling to make ends meet. Anyone ignoring that will probably be asking themselves how did trump win in 24….
     
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  14. WarDamnGator

    WarDamnGator GC Hall of Fame

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    We need a base line. The SNAP trend across the nation right now is improving since 2021 after Trump put 300% more people in the poor house. That seems relevant. What changed in 2021 and why should we go back to Trump's failed policies?
     
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  15. snatchmagnet

    snatchmagnet Bring On The Bacon Premium Member

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    That graph has a solid looking line till 2019. Wonder what happened to cause it to shoot up?
     
  16. gator95

    gator95 GC Hall of Fame

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    So EBT was extremely low until 2020. Wonder what happened in 2020 to make those things go up? If you’re going to be ignorant that’s fine, just realize no one else believes your BS.
     
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  17. WarDamnGator

    WarDamnGator GC Hall of Fame

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    Awww… You guys try to blame that fake news plandemic on all of Trumps failures, don’t you? He let America down and couldn’t continue the successful path Obama had gift wrapped for him. At least Biden has the needle moving in the right direction again.
     
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  18. snatchmagnet

    snatchmagnet Bring On The Bacon Premium Member

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    Yes, that’s definitely what happened.
     
  19. WarDamnGator

    WarDamnGator GC Hall of Fame

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    Yup, EBT had been declined for years under Obama until Trump sent to soaring to record heights with his failed policies and mismanagement of Covid. Shameful time in America history. Trumps SNAP surge was the worst in American history, over twice as bad as our last failed president GWB … glad you guys brought this up. It’s important to be reminded of how terrible things were under Trump while the early voting booths are open.
     
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  20. snatchmagnet

    snatchmagnet Bring On The Bacon Premium Member

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    Glad to be able to help out
     
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