Trump vs. Harris - Please put all new polls here.

Oh yes, even though I'm usually simple in candy bars such as Mr. Goodbar or Almond Joy, Halloween brings about so many more that I love. Got to be the big size, though. Snack size is no bueno.

 

Yikes... RCP just flipped Michigan to Trump. Quinnipiac polls have been overly generous to Clinton and Biden in the past. Trump +4 in Michigan. Wow:

 

RCP now has Trump with 296 electoral votes on the "no toss-ups" map. Wisconsin is hanging by a thread for Harris.

 

There's a good chance that Harris will outperform the polls in Michigan like Whitmer did in 2022.

Edit: I don't think that Tudor Dixon and MAGA nation found the results of the election "funny".

 

from the fighting off diabetes crowd: Get out of here you sugar eating bums .

(I hope you guys get cavities )

 

From a column by Nate Cohn in yesterday's NY Times.

State of the Race: A Big Week in News, but a Quiet One in Polling
The polls are still so close that neither candidate has a significant advantage.

Maybe I'm overly optimistic but I think 2024 is going to be more like 2022 than 2020. First, enthusiasm among Democrats is much higher than it was in 2020. As was the case in 2022 the polls are underestimating the impact of the Dobbs decision overturning Roe v. Wade. Since the 2022 midterms there have been three other elections which could be telling. The first is the 2023 Kentucky gubernatorial election in which reproductive rights were a significant issue. Andy Beshear the pro choice Democratic incumbent defeated Daniel Cameron the prolife Republican by a five percentage point margin. In the Virginia off off year legislative election the Democrats ended up with majorities in both Houses of the State legislature flipping the State Assembly the lower house from majority Republican to majority Democrat. While anecdotal in swing districts in Northern Virginia (Prince William and Loudoun Counties) virtually all of the Republican candidates ran on the issue of crime alleging that the Democrats were soft on crime while the Democrats ran on reproductive rights. The final results were Democratic victories in almost every district. Finally there was the Wisconsin election for a seat on the state's Supreme Court. The liberal candidate defeated the conservative a former justice by a 10 percentage point margin in an election in which the most significant issue was reproductive rights. Had the conservative won the court would have almost certainly allowed the reinstatement of a 19th century law outlawing virtually all abortions. While that case is still pending it's very likely that the liberal majority would vote not allow reinstatement of the statute. There was also other consequential decision by the court.
Newly Liberal Wisconsin Supreme Court Reinstates Ballot Drop Boxes Ahead of 2024 Election
https://wisconsinexaminer.com/brief...e-arguing-near-total-ban-is-unconstitutional/

 

New state polling today..... brutal for Harris.....

 

All of the swing state polls are within the margin of error meaning that they're statistical dead heats.

 

It's the economy stupid. And the border.

 

Trump hasn't been this favored in over two months:

 

Trump has Big MO. Many average voters are just starting to figure out how terrible Kamala is. Trump picking up steam

 

Trafalgar General Election

 

That hard right turn in Michigan, tho...

 

Looking at crosstabs, there is some good news for Harris. She leads in suburban voters by 6 points. This is where Biden won in the suburbs of Philly, Atlanta, Detroit, and Phoenix by a similar +6 margin. And where Hilary lost by posting only a +3 margin among similar voters.

 

I wonder to what extent these polls accurately capture the youth (say 18 - 30ish) vote. People in that age bracket interact with media vastly different than us old farts. For one, they are bombarded with social media to a much greater extent and may be more selective in the things they respond to. I hypothesize that most of these polls are yielding higher response rates from the older demographic. Perhaps there are some polls that specifically target younger voters. Sorry if I missed where that was posted here.

 

This article makes the case that polymarket is being used by billionaires (musk/theil - who are also investors) to tilt the odds on Poly, which is being more and more viewed as some sort of tangible baseline, ie a poll, and when trump loses, Polymarket will be shown as an examples the R will put in front of the Supreme Court to challenge the election

The Polymarket Bubble: Everyone Is Betting on the US Election

 

I think pollsters correct for the last election. lol. We will see what happens.

 

Since 2020 voters are swinging towards Republicans in voter registration and how they identify (D or R). This type of data tells you more than you might pick up by looking at polls, most of which have a heavy b8as towards Democrats.

As I said, the excitement Democrats had for Kamala was classic response bias. That has petered out and voters are looking at her and realizing she would be a disaster. The closer to the election we get the bigger Trump's lead would be.

The smartest bettors knew a year ago Trump was a big favorite. Then the Democrats replaced Biden with the person that could most easily be tied to Biden administration failures.
How could they be so dumb? Lol

 

If they are correct, Trump is winning. Remember Biden needed a 4+ point advantage in the popular vote in 2020 just to barely beat Trump in the EC. I haven't seen a poll aggregator site yet that shows Harris at +4. If you're rooting for Harris, you will want to root for the polls being skewed towards Trump by a couple of points. I suppose anything is possible. Me winning the powerball lottery jackpot is possible.