IMPORTANT Hurricane Milton

north side is a lot wetter. be safe out there

 

500 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024

...MILTON APPROACHING THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, AND FLOODING RAINS
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.9N 83.4W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM WSW OF SARASOTA FLORIDA
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SW OF ORLANDO FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES

 

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Anna Maria Island, FL to Boca Grande, FL...9-13 ft
Anclote River, FL to Anna Maria Island, FL...6-9 ft
Tampa Bay...6-9 ft
Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...8-12 ft
Charlotte Harbor...8-12 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...5-8 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Sebastian Inlet, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL...2-4 ft
Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft
St. Johns River...2-4 ft

 

5 pm
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 26.9N 83.4W 105 KT 120 MPH (60 miles SW of Bradenton)
12H 10/0600Z 28.0N 81.8W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND (9 miles ESE of Lakeland)
24H 10/1800Z 28.9N 79.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 11/0600Z 29.2N 76.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 11/1800Z 29.3N 73.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 12/0600Z 29.4N 70.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 12/1800Z 29.9N 67.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/1800Z 31.2N 61.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 14/1800Z 33.1N 55.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 

17 confirmed in the last 48 hrs
https://tornadopaths.engin.umich.edu/

 

We are looking at 10 miles being the difference between hitting Sarasota first vs. moving straight up the bay ...

 

Very sheared storm now, rain well NE of center of circulation.

Will weaken faster but wind field will expand outward.

 

Here’s the latest on the spot you showed concern over.

Southwestern Atlantic (AL93):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a gale-force non-tropical
low pressure system located less than 300 miles west-southwest of
Bermuda remain disorganized. Environmental conditions are becoming
less favorable for tropical or subtropical development today while
the low moves northeastward to east-northeastward at around 15 mph.
Upper-level winds are expected to become too strong for further
development tonight or on Thursday. Additional information on this
system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

 

600 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024

...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, AND FLOODING RAINS
EXPECTED TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...
...600 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...

Heavy rainfall continues over the central Florida peninsula with
hurricane-force wind gusts beginning to occur along the Florida gulf
coast.

A sustained wind of 58 mph (93 km/h) and a gust of 77 mph (124 km/h)
was recently reported at a WeatherFlow station at Egmont Channel. A
sustained wind of 54 mph (87 km/h) and a gust of 66 mph (106 km/h)
was recently reported at the Albert Whitted Airport in
St. Petersburg.

The next update will be at 700 PM EDT (2300 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 600 PM EDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 83.3W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WSW OF SARASOTA FLORIDA
ABOUT 150 MI...250 KM SW OF ORLANDO FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES

 

Still alive! But the worst is still nowhere near me...

 

So looking like landfall as a CAT 3? I’ll take it.

 

This is a great radar of the storm.
COD NEXLAB: Satellite and Radar

It definitely jogged right and is looking like Sarasota LF

 

That shows the hurricane staying far more south than I was expecting... good for me, but still bad news for others. Prayers sent to all in the path...

 

South of Ft Myers
15 mph with gusts to 40 - 45. Rain is done, wind out of South is going to fill the Caloosahatchee and Pine Island sound. Minimal surge South of ft myers beach

 

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/inundationdb/cidstorm.html?stormname=Milton

To track surge heights

Ft myers at 3' -4' and climbing

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/inundationdb/cidstorm.html?stormname=Milton