None of that was why I posted it. I am simply saying if there is one under the radar metric to watch in a close race, that’s it. It’s not a coincidence that her first time leading on that stat is her first time leading in that poll. Given that late deciders and flippers almost always break towards change, we will see over the next few weeks who wins that mantle, because it could very well decide the election. This poll was just a good example of it. Would have been the same argument had she gone from -3 to -1.
Even assuming for purposes of argument that Kamala Harris made a poor choice when she had a relationship with Willie Brown when she was 31, the 59-year old Kamala Harris running for the presidency is not the 31-year old Kamala Harris who had the affair with Willie Brown in 1995. If the fact that the spouse of a candidate mistreated women should be sufficient to disqualify a candidate logically mistreatment of women by a candidate himself should be a much more significant disqualifying factor.
So you've cracked the code on how to predict the outcome of the election based on one cross tab from one poll. Got it. When are you going to start posting lottery numbers?
Not good news for Trump. Pro-Palestinian ‘Uncommitted’ Group Comes Out Firmly Against Trump The speculation was the Michigan voters who identified with the group would either stay home or vote third party rather than vote for Harris. Although the group hasn't come out in support of Harris their message is clearly that maybe for voters of Arabic/Muslim decent who oppose Biden's support of Israel the better alternative would be to vote for the candidate that they consider "the lesser of two evils" rather than to remain neutral.
There was no code to be cracked (nor the need for the sarcasm), it’s been a common axiom for decades among pollsters that late deciders break for the challenger in most cases (change). In most elections those roles are clear and can be baked into the late expectations and models. Given the unique role and background of the candidates in this election though it’s a lot more fluid and harder to predict who wears those hats, which makes it more important in how it breaks because, with a close election it will have an outsized impact and isn’t nearly as clear. Whoever can define themselves that way in this election gets a big leg up. It’s nothing more complicated than that. Incumbent Rule
WBrown was separated from his wife for more than a decade before dating Kamala. Playing the infidelity and age discrepancy card here is shameful considering the disgusting criminal adulterous sexual offender you support.
Combine this with the illegal alien and dead people votes and it spells certain doom for the sexual offending adulterous felon.
Without going down this silly rabbit hole with you, I don’t think we can say something is “breaking” one particular candidate’s way based upon one cross tab from one poll. Especially when the overall aggregate of the most recent polling data suggests it’s going the opposite direction.
Good heavens dude, I never said it’s breaking one candidates way, I said this poll demonstrates why it matters in the numbers. I said repeatedly in the end whomever, again whomever, it breaks for will likely win. Its the number to watch late in the race, nothing more. Not everything is a veiled trump attack that needs defending.
He never said it was breaking one way or the other. Good Lord, learn to read and stop being so damn defensive and in need to be 100% correct all the time that you can't even read the words in front of you. Get over yourself.
One day you're pumping the aggregate of polls as "the thing to watch". But now that the aggregate of polls have become a little too red for your comfort, you're focusing on a cross tab from a singular poll. You should have stuck by your original assertion that the aggregate of polls is the thing to watch. As inaccurate as those have been the past two cycles, it's about the best thing we've got.
Again none of this has anything to do with my recent posts, it’s really bizarre to me that you can’t grasp it or choose not to. But either way, good luck. .
Oh, I grasp it alright. If I had to bet money today, I'd say Trump wins, but I'm not going to lie and say I wouldn't be nervous. That's unlikely to change between now and November 5th. But even if we say her national lead right now is +2.0 as RCP shows, a +2.0 popular vote win for Harris gives Trump 300+ electoral votes. I hope you realize that. And again, as I keep saying, this assumes they're accurately gauging Trump's support, which is a fool's errand given the previous two elections. But it's a race that is still very much up for grabs, I'll grant you that.
There are four camps of people in this election. Strong lean R, strong lean D, weak lean R who could switch, weak lean D who could switch, and undecided. The strong leans are never going to change. The election hinges on the undecideds and the weak leans who actually do switch. This is where the crosstabs come into play. Who has the larger number of weak leans? These are people who the poll counts as a vote for one candidate today, but their vote will be switched come election day. Equally important is which way is the undecided votes breaking? This is where the "change" candidate is important, as the candidate who represents change usually wins over more undecideds than his/her challenger. This is why the latest NYT poll was very positive for Harris. Looking at the crosstabs, she is now the candidate of change. And there are more soft leans for Trump than Harris, meaning she has a higher ceiling. Could especially come into play in places like North Carolina and Arizona where there is a Trumper Governor candidate and Trumper Senator candidate respectively that could sway soft leans in both states to vote party ticket at the top. With that said, not every election is the same, and trends do change over time. But a NYT poll with Harris +4 nationally, and is now the candidate of change with larger number of Trump soft leans only about a month before the election? That's a good poll for Harris.
Elections are win by the candidate that gets energizes the vote. Hilary, aided by a media that showed overwhelming polls in her favor, didn’t energize enough of her “votes” to get off their butts and actually vote. Which candidate will do the best in this election is up in the air.
