IMPORTANT Hurricane Milton

Yeah, I think finding a place is the con to that plan. I assume I'd be somewhere in north GA at this point

 

That will go NW IF it becomes anything.

 

Zoom Earth is an effective app to get a quick look at the path…..


online image hosting

 

Be safe Rick!

 

Am I wrong here in observing this hurricane is still on the smaller end in terms of the usual girth of the wind field for a hurricane? Not that it's going to matter to those areas directly hit, but hopefully this cuts down on some of the damage and inevitable casualties. Also moving at 16 mph and looks to sustain that or perhaps even speed up more as it crosses Florida, which may help to limit flooding. Just looking for some ray of hope. It's going to be very bad regardless.

 

I don’t think this is small, since the entire Peninsula is expected to be impacted.

 

Multiple tornado warnings this morning, including at least one PDS. Here was one not far from FLL. Everybody keep an eye out today!

 

It only has about 12 hours to do that, right? I hope the front adds in some stiff sheer, but with the way it's moving, I don't know that there's going to be an abundance of sheer in the next 12 hours. Fingers crossed for the best case scenario on this one.

 

1100 AM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024

...TORNADIC SUPERCELLS FROM MILTON BEGINNING TO SWEEP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...
...THE TIME TO PREPARE, INCLUDING EVACUATE IF TOLD DO SO, IS
QUICKLY COMING TO AN END ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 84.3W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM WSW OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB...27.50 INCHES

 

Winds down a little and picking up speed of movement.

 

11 AM
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 25.8N 84.3W 125 KT 145 MPH

12H 10/0000Z 27.0N 83.0W 110 KT 125 MPH (32 miles Sw of Siesta Key)
24H 10/1200Z 28.0N 81.1W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND (Three Lakes Wildlife Mngt. Area)

36H 11/0000Z 28.7N 78.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 11/1200Z 29.1N 75.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 12/0000Z 29.3N 72.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 12/1200Z 29.9N 68.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/1200Z 31.4N 62.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 14/1200Z 32.8N 55.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/

 

Yep, Simple math puts LF at 10 pm

 

I don’t think the size or speed is going to make much of a change in the storm surge expected from the mouth of Tampa Bay south to Charlotte Harbor. However, the increased speed could reduce localized flooding resulting from overtaxed storm water systems and river flooding …. and smaller size would reduce the storms impact in north and south Florida, especially in the Big Bend area.

 

Maybe you or jeff can help me on a different question I've had.

Do you understand the formula for extrapolation from air recon of wind speeds to estimated wind speeds at ground level? I thought last night I heard Meteorologist Andy Hill on Ryan Hall Y'all say they multiply the air speed by 0.9 to get ground speed? Seems like the discount would need to be bigger? I've been on a higher floor of a condo and felt like the wind speeds were so much higher "only" that far up.

I'm not clear how high up that air recon data is taken or whether he was referring to the data from the height of the plane itself as opposed to data from a dropsonde, which I presume is gettign data at different heights. I also know there are more than one type of plane going in and one of the planes goes up even higher to check out the jets or steering winds.

I have heard some people say/claim that ground level winds almost never get as high as estimated. I don't know if that's true. If it is, could be it be based upon how these estimates are done? Alternatively, I've heard others note that many anemometers break when winds really ramp up, so the ground level data is often not very good.

 

Two things:

1) We had better pray that thing stays on its track or to the south. If it ticks north Tampa Bay could load up with water or worse, wash out clear across to Clearwater.

(disclaimer #1) I have family in Sarasota, Bradenton, Tampa, Venice, and in between. Not wishing evil on anyone to the south, but the catastrophe possible due to that counterclockwise-shaped bay is unthinkable.

2) The forward speed of the storm had better pick up as earlier predicted. There is a huge difference between the surge impact of a storm moving in at 12 mph vs 25 mph.

(disclaimer #2) I have family in Belle Glade and Winter Haven also. Not wishing evil on the inland crowd, but even 150 mph wind is nothing compared to possible wave and flood impacts of this thing.

 

I certainly hope you are correct.

 

Great questions. Hope you get answers.