The 11pm brought the winds down to 165, pressure up to 914, and the path a few miles south again. We will see if it gets its juice back as the eye wall replacement finishes and it gets away from the Yucatan.
Unless the projected path shifts before I plan to leave tomorrow morning, there's no reason for me to stay and try to ride out a category 1 or 2 hurricane (by the time it reaches where I am). The projected path earlier today was very close to where I live. While there's not much risk of flooding, my neighborhood has a lot of trees.
Interesting enough one of the models seems to bring in SW shear sooner and really prevents it from ramping back up. Getting away from the yuke will be better for strengthening but it doesn’t have much time before the shear affects it. While these super powerful storms are an amazing thing the conditions have to be just perfect for them to get like that and it usually doesn’t last long (thankfully).
And on the flip side, the HAFS-B, which has nailed this storm to this point including when the EWRC would start, had it getting back down to 884 before quickly weakening and being 963 at landfall. Gonna be a really interesting 2 days, because 884 a day out means a much larger storm surge than if it never gets back to full strength. The strength could also impact the path, stronger storms and tend to turn poleward. So a weaker storm and Tampa could win twice.
Mom just moved to Port Richey. She is west of US 19, only about 1/4 from the Gulf on the west side of the Mall. Nothing is west of her except salt water marshes. I'm not familiar with this area at all! If someone knows about that area, I'd freakin really appreciated it. I'm trying to talk her into evacuating (she's in flood zone A on the 1st floor), but she is being a stubborn 79yo lady. Any advise would be a God send.
Agreed. Trying to persuade her to evacuate, but she's an old cracker and very stubborn. I live in Colorado and don't know what to do.
How did she do in last weeks storm? No water in the house, I assume? Right now, Pasco is in the path of many models. Some have a direct hit in the Port Richey or Hudson area. If she is in an evacuation zone A she should leave. Even if she has a newer and elevated house, rescue has already said people in Zone As are on their own if they stay. Last weeks storm pushed water up to US 19 in much of that area and flooded 1000s of homes. My gut feeling this will be as bad or worse, even if storm comes in around Sarasota. I would keep pushing her to leave, but my parents, who live a little south of there in palm Harbor, are the same, and won’t take my advise. There is only so much you can do.
I keep posting this, but it’s invaluable information for storm surge questions. It can change based on where the storm come ashore. HURRICANE MILTON
Ask them to record and send goodbye messages for the grandkids or schedule a good bye call. If she is west of 19, that's zone A+ not far from ground zero
Taylor Co requested people write their name and dob on their arm with a sharpie....that sobered up a few
My friends on Tampa Bay went dark two days ago. Just posted that they are at a hotel in Fernadina Beach. I was worried they were going down with the ship.
11a, still south of Tampa, roughly 125mph at landfall. The NHC thinks that some of the kids from the shear and dry air will be offset by the interaction with the front - The pressure gradient will help keep the winds up.
Indeed. We just passed through Perry today during evacuation. It definitely shows that a storm came through, but it wasn’t the disaster that I was expecting. I hope the same is true of wherever Milton lands.
