IMPORTANT Hurricane Milton

This is pretty much the nightmare scenario for TB, is it not?

 

Agreed, but that's only going to lessen the wind damage and possible rainfall. The storm surge is already set in stone. It will follow the storm all the way to landfall. Nothing stopping that wall of water which is always the most deadly part of any tropical system.

 

100 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

...MILTON EXPLOSIVELY INTENSIFIES WITH 175-MPH WINDS...
...RESIDENTS IN FLORIDA ARE URGED TO FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL
OFFICIALS...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 91.3W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 700 MI...1130 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...911 MB..
.26.90 INCHES

 

Hopefully the people in the Yucatan will be ok.

 

St. Pete Beach shutting off water, sewage for Milton | wtsp.com

 

The good news (if you want to call it that) is that usually these storms reach a peak intensity and don't maintain it but for a few hours. Add in some sheer and it could be down to a Cat 2 by the time it hits Florida. It's probably a good thing it's peaking this early.

 

I even heard one meteorologist say that because the expected "weakening" would likely involve the storm getting larger that the storm surge might actually be worse in that situation. Hard to find a lot to be optimistic about at the moment.

 

That's bad. 16 feet ++ in tampa bay

 

take lots of pics and high res video, be thankful that you can leave..not enough shelters, state should be buying hotel rooms instead of political ads

 

I don't know if one could draw a worst case for Tampa Bay. Are you above surge? estimate 18' NAVD finish floor to avoid flooding, could be higher..

 

I think it depends on how much it weakens. Generally speaking, there is no comparison between the storm surge from a Cat 2 (for example) to a Cat 5. The storm could expand, but the surge is a product of the strength of the winds pushing the water forward. Probably depends on how long the storm is in a weakened state before it makes landfall as well.

 

sorry boss, that ain't happening. get into FLL and take the brightline back if power is up...

with all the resources in carolinas, not sure there are a lot pre-staged and eager to attack this one post event

 

To clarify, I'm up in NW Florida panhandle and will not be personally affected by Milton. I'm a weather geek who's nervous about the loss of life and property - not to mention the impact this storm could have on our already-troubled insurance market.

 

Holy cow... this is bad.

 

I've got a Thursday evening flight out of Miami, and while I think it's pretty likely we make it out, I'm still concerned about plane/crew disruptions from cancellations throwing a wrench in things.