IMPORTANT Hurricane Milton - winds now 165MPH

I'm right in the middle of the path... Crap.

 

10 am FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 21.7N 91.7W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 21.5N 90.4W 145 KT 165 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 22.2N 88.3W 140 KT 160 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 23.6N 86.4W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 25.5N 84.7W 125 KT 145 MPH

60H 10/0000Z 27.7N 82.8W 110 KT 125 MPH (4 miles W of St Pete Beach)
72H 10/1200Z 29.2N 80.1W 80 KT 90 MPH (93 miles E of Daytona Beach)

96H 11/1200Z 30.8N 71.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/1200Z 31.0N 66.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 

these are really good.

 

What are the approx margin of error on models? ie 60 hours out for Orlando equates to a 100 miles for the eye? And that 100 miles reduces the closer it gets.

 

Heard this was the fastest intensification from TS to a CAT 5 in history. I mean, a couple days ago they were talking about staying a TS or being a 1 at land fall. Crazy.

At least the good news is that CAT 5 hurricanes can’t sustain that level long because the amount of rain they drop cools the water ahead of them…. I think it’s still expected to drop in intensity before land fall.

 

Not sure what you’re asking.

I am personally interested in how this affects Orlando since I have a flight in late Thursday evening.

 

Margin of error in estimates. If prediction models has hurricane over Orlando in 60 hours, that estimate could be off by 100 miles north or south. But the closer it gets that error range shrinks. So 48 hours out, it might be off by 60 miles north or south.

 

I’d think out of caution they’d cancel Thursday flights. Some models have landfall late Wednesday. The area affected by high winds will be large. Orlando will probably be relatively claim by Thursday evening but I still think they err on the side of caution and send their employee home for Thursday.

 

One tv channel website had this:

“It was noted that every county has at least one pet-friendly shelter, and hotels statewide have agreed to accommodate pets throughout this state of emergency.”

 

Evacuate if possible Rick. I have a bad feeling about this one. Hope I’m wrong.

 

Not following, what are the implications?

 

You nailed it. NHC says there is an error of 100 miles or so

 

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The line is over my house and my business.

Paul Delegatto is a friend and the least sensational meteorologist out there.
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