IMPORTANT Hurricane Milton

So far. I will update my plotting map every time anew discussion from the NHC comes out. It is every other advisory.

 

Fired up the generator, got the cables out, filled the gas cans, dropped $400 at publix and Walmart, exercised the shutters. Looking around and see a lot of people look like they've never been thru a storm before. South of ft myers. Schools closed M - Th already

 

Very cool. We are pretty close to Oldsmar.

 

Yeah, schools are already closed here. Lots of activity around town. I expect the city will be out of gas by late Monday early Tuesday. Everyone is filling up today.
I have plenty of water and food plus a 2 lb jug of protein powder to make shakes if needed. All the 20v are charged up for the flash lights and I went through my guns and ammo prepping for the worst case scenario.
Tomorrow I will decide if I need to put together a go bag and hit the road.

I'm not worried about the wind. I live in a 2 story condo building that was built in the 80's and is a concrete box. But I'm on the first floor. So it's the surge that concerns me. Im at 16 feet elevation East of old Tampa Bay on the S. Tampa peninsula a little more than a 1/2 mile in. With Helene, water got within a qtr mile but a few low spots that were closer flooded.

 

You should be fine at 16 unless it goes north of Tampa then it might be close. I'm at 16 with 0.5 mile of coast and it has never got close to me other than Wilma and that was lots of rain (14") less than a week after having 12" in 3 days. Just south of ft myers

 

Live updates: Schools close as Milton expected to hit Florida as major hurricane

Pinellas County issued a mandatory evacuation order for long-term care health facilities, assisted living facilities and hospitals in evacuation zones, A, B and C. The evacuation includes six hospitals, 25 nursing homes and 44 assisted living facilities totaling approximately 6,600 patients.

 

We are fortunate to be the only Gator board with its own staff meteorologist.

 

Just ran up to CVS to pick up a Rx and the gas station across the street is already out of gas.

 

I went through that after my house fire. Big public adjuster wanted me to sign rights to them to do repairs. Told them no it’s gonna a total loss and we will likely tear down a build new. They said oh no way you have enough damage to be a total loss. “we will make sure you get every penny you can”. Long story short it was a total loss, glad I didn’t listen to them.

 

Amateur, I know my limits. I stand on the shoulders of real ones and copy/paste what they say. LOL

 

Serious or joking, it happens almost every year. Hell I think one of the first this year was one near Texas.


Don’t tell me you’ve gone to the Gov is causing these and can direct them to Red states camps?

 

It will be huge.
I think most will go north or inland. Hard to say where I would go if I was over there. Jog to the north our south can make a huge difference.

Here on the east coast just south of Daytona we will hunker down.

 

Or just pile it up to form a giant berm at the beach. Not grade it all.

 

This is crazy if it happens.

Per model consensus, there’s a chance for a short-lived TC to form just E of FL from an area of convection and possible developing LLC currently in the E GOM ahead of Milton that would then move well OTS. (see IR image below). Is anyone else watching this? I’m watching this closely because it could have a non-trivial influence on Milton in some way(s). For example, the 12Z UKMET has a TC from this:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 27.6N 78.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.10.2024 48 27.6N 78.8W 1003 23
0000UTC 09.10.2024 60 28.6N 75.5W 1002 28
1200UTC 09.10.2024 72 30.0N 71.9W 1003 30
0000UTC 10.10.2024 84 32.3N 66.5W 1004 30
1200UTC 10.10.2024 96 35.3N 60.5W 1003 33
0000UTC 11.10.2024 108 38.9N 54.6W 999 37
1200UTC 11.10.2024 120 CEASED TRACKING

 

Storms definitely form in the Gulf of Mexico with some frequency, but coming all the way across on an easterly path from Mexico to FL is what is unusual. I’d bet most storms that start to develop in that area get pulled up to TX or LA. Apparantly no Hurricane has hit FL on this path since like the 1860’s.

 

400 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024

...MILTON CONTINUING TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF YUCATAN
PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 93.8W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 805 MI...1295 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES

 

Thats a big call, better safe than sorry I guess but wow what an undertaking. where are they being moved to and how do those nurses, therapists, etc all go to new facility or does new facility take on all that extra workload?