So far. I will update my plotting map every time anew discussion from the NHC comes out. It is every other advisory.
Fired up the generator, got the cables out, filled the gas cans, dropped $400 at publix and Walmart, exercised the shutters. Looking around and see a lot of people look like they've never been thru a storm before. South of ft myers. Schools closed M - Th already
Yeah, schools are already closed here. Lots of activity around town. I expect the city will be out of gas by late Monday early Tuesday. Everyone is filling up today. I have plenty of water and food plus a 2 lb jug of protein powder to make shakes if needed. All the 20v are charged up for the flash lights and I went through my guns and ammo prepping for the worst case scenario. Tomorrow I will decide if I need to put together a go bag and hit the road. I'm not worried about the wind. I live in a 2 story condo building that was built in the 80's and is a concrete box. But I'm on the first floor. So it's the surge that concerns me. Im at 16 feet elevation East of old Tampa Bay on the S. Tampa peninsula a little more than a 1/2 mile in. With Helene, water got within a qtr mile but a few low spots that were closer flooded.
You should be fine at 16 unless it goes north of Tampa then it might be close. I'm at 16 with 0.5 mile of coast and it has never got close to me other than Wilma and that was lots of rain (14") less than a week after having 12" in 3 days. Just south of ft myers
Live updates: Schools close as Milton expected to hit Florida as major hurricane Pinellas County issued a mandatory evacuation order for long-term care health facilities, assisted living facilities and hospitals in evacuation zones, A, B and C. The evacuation includes six hospitals, 25 nursing homes and 44 assisted living facilities totaling approximately 6,600 patients.
I went through that after my house fire. Big public adjuster wanted me to sign rights to them to do repairs. Told them no it’s gonna a total loss and we will likely tear down a build new. They said oh no way you have enough damage to be a total loss. “we will make sure you get every penny you can”. Long story short it was a total loss, glad I didn’t listen to them.
Serious or joking, it happens almost every year. Hell I think one of the first this year was one near Texas. Don’t tell me you’ve gone to the Gov is causing these and can direct them to Red states camps?
It will be huge. I think most will go north or inland. Hard to say where I would go if I was over there. Jog to the north our south can make a huge difference. Here on the east coast just south of Daytona we will hunker down.
This is crazy if it happens. Per model consensus, there’s a chance for a short-lived TC to form just E of FL from an area of convection and possible developing LLC currently in the E GOM ahead of Milton that would then move well OTS. (see IR image below). Is anyone else watching this? I’m watching this closely because it could have a non-trivial influence on Milton in some way(s). For example, the 12Z UKMET has a TC from this: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 27.6N 78.8W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 08.10.2024 48 27.6N 78.8W 1003 23 0000UTC 09.10.2024 60 28.6N 75.5W 1002 28 1200UTC 09.10.2024 72 30.0N 71.9W 1003 30 0000UTC 10.10.2024 84 32.3N 66.5W 1004 30 1200UTC 10.10.2024 96 35.3N 60.5W 1003 33 0000UTC 11.10.2024 108 38.9N 54.6W 999 37 1200UTC 11.10.2024 120 CEASED TRACKING
Storms definitely form in the Gulf of Mexico with some frequency, but coming all the way across on an easterly path from Mexico to FL is what is unusual. I’d bet most storms that start to develop in that area get pulled up to TX or LA. Apparantly no Hurricane has hit FL on this path since like the 1860’s.
400 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 ...MILTON CONTINUING TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.4N 93.8W ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 805 MI...1295 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES
Thats a big call, better safe than sorry I guess but wow what an undertaking. where are they being moved to and how do those nurses, therapists, etc all go to new facility or does new facility take on all that extra workload?
So the whole debate with this storm now is how much the sheer that’s expected as it gets close to FL impacts it, gotta hope for a lot. Because I think this might peak at a cat 5 or close. Meantime, a 30 mile jog north will mean absolute 100-200 billion dollar devastation in Tampa alone.
